The melting Himalayas and India's looming water crisis

The glaciers of the Himalayas are retreating under the pressure of global warming. Seasonal snow, too, has been declining year after year, reducing river flows and threatening water security across the subcontinent. This trend endangers irrigation across nearly 6 lakh sq km of agricultural land and jeopardises the generation of around 26,000 MW of hydropower. The livelihoods of over a billion people are at stake.

According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, snowfall between November 2024 and March 2025 declined by 23.6% compared to the long-term average since 2003. The catchments of the Ganga, Indus and Brahmaputra river systems—covering about 42,000 sq km of glacier area and nearly 16 lakh sq km of seasonal snow—are under increasing stress, directly affecting flows in rivers and tributaries.

After a prolonged dry spell from November 2025 until the third week of January 2026, delayed snowfall finally arrived in the Himalayas. This coincided with severe snowstorms across North America, Europe, Russia and Japan.

In the United States alone, these storms claimed over 100 lives, triggered power outages, and grounded more than 14,000 flights.

To understand this late spurt of snowfall, it is necessary to examine the role of the Arctic polar vortex and the broader causes behind declining Himalayan snow. When the polar vortex is stable, the jet stream remains relatively orderly, confining cold air to the Arctic. When disrupted, the jet stream becomes more distorted and wavy, allowing warm air to surge northwards into the Arctic while frigid air plunges south into lower latitude regions of the globe.

While scientists have not conclusively linked climate change to polar vortex disruptions, there is clear evidence of the Arctic region warming faster than the rest of the planet—a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Retreating sea ice exposes earth surfaces that absorb more sunlight, accelerating warming and altering atmospheric circulation patterns over the polar region. The growing race for oil and rare earth minerals in the Arctic risks further destabilising this fragile system. Such activities in the Arctic region must be halted.

Like the Arctic, the Himalayas are warming nearly twice as fast. Global warming and weakening western disturbances are the primary reasons for declining winter snowfall. Four of the last five winters have recorded below-average snowfall, indicating a clear trend rather than a one-off anomaly. Reduced snow cover increases the risk of droughts, forest fires and glacial lake outburst floods.

The absence of rain and snow has dried forest floors across Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, triggering extensive forest fires even during the cold and dry winter. Inflammable grasses and weeds have fuelled blazes across thousands of hectares, damaging young tree regeneration and severely affecting wildlife, particularly amphibians and reptiles.

Low precipitation has also distressed farming communities. Staple crops like barley and oats have failed in several regions. In Ladakh, where agriculture depends on glacier meltwater, farmers struggled through a harsh winter drought.

Though there were attempts to create a few artificial reservoirs with ice, it was not on the scale that it could benefit every farmer of the union territory. Though glaciers melt in summer, streams remained dry through spring. This explains how winter precipitation is important even for the communities residing closer to the glaciers.

The apple-growing farmers, too, are hit. Apple trees right from flowering need between 1,200 and 1,600 chilling hours. Delayed snowfall has disrupted this cycle. Traditional varieties such as Royal Delicious and Red Delicious have disappeared from lower altitude areas of Mandi, Shimla and Kullu, while warmer conditions have encouraged scab and canker diseases. There is enough evidence that farmers are abandoning the apple orchards, uprooting the trees and growing vegetables in the area. To find a congenial atmosphere, the apple orchards are being relocated to higher altitudes, which involves a considerable financial burden on the farmer.

Tourists who go for enjoying snowfall and skiing have largely remained disappointed till the last week of January, impacting the livelihood of the locals who facilitated their stay, food and movement. As the tourism picks up, there are traffic jams and crowding in hotels and restaurants, causing pollution to the already depleted flow of water in the streams. Tourist numbers must be restricted in the region, a carrying capacity must be worked out and tourism must be regulated accordingly.

Some strategies to cope with declining precipitation would be to revive traditional water harvesting, promote climate-resilient agriculture and adopt nature-based solutions. Ground-level water security should also be enhanced. The average rise in global temperature must be restricted by transitioning away from fossil fuel consumption. The fundamental response of emission mitigation has remained weak globally. But there can’t be a pause to policy, which must also prioritise scientific, well-funded cryosphere monitoring and ensure coordination and data sharing across boundaries to shape a future-ready strategy.

(The writer is a former head of Forest Force, Karnataka)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.