Türkiye's self-sabotage directly benefits India

Türkiye’s position as a strategic gateway between Europe and Asia has historically made it an indispensable player in regional affairs. However, recent political developments under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership are raising concerns about the country's democratic trajectory and its implications for Eurasian geopolitics. Ankara’s internal political struggles are reshaping regional dynamics and creating opportunities for other powers, particularly India, to expand their influence.

Democratic erosion under Erdoğan

Erdoğan's intensifying crackdown on political opposition has raised alarm among international observers, who see Türkiye sliding further toward authoritarianism. The recent wave of detentions targeting Opposition figures, particularly the case against Ekrem İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, demonstrates a troubling pattern. These actions represent not strength but vulnerability in Erdoğan's two-decade grip on power.

İmamoğlu, who defeated Erdoğan's candidate twice in the 2019 elections, now faces accusations that his university diploma was fraudulent. This is widely viewed as politically motivated, potentially aimed at disqualifying a strong challenger to Erdoğan on the national stage. This case follows another where İmamoğlu was sentenced to prison and banned from politics and banned from politics for allegedly insulting election officials. The timing of these legal challenges is particularly telling — they intensified after he emerged as a credible national challenger following his decisive victory in Istanbul.

Geopolitical implications for Eurasia

Türkiye's democratic backsliding threatens to diminish its standing as a regional power broker at a crucial juncture for West Asian geopolitics. This democratic decline has profound implications beyond domestic politics. Türkiye’s control over critical maritime chokepoints, including the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, has historically given it tremendous leverage in energy transit politics.

Data from the Türkiye Energy Strategy publication by Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms that Türkiye's strategic position has allowed it to facilitate global oil supplies through the Turkish Straits annually. However, recent diplomatic tensions with the EU, as evidenced by criticisms at the most recent EU-Türkiye summit, threaten this position.

After a gradual increase from 0.8 per cent to 1.4 per cent between 2013 and 2021, the share of R&D expenditure in the GDP decreased for the first time to 1.32 per cent in 2022. The gap with the EU average of 2.24 per cent remains large according to European Commission trade data, suggesting diminishing confidence in Türkiye's reliability as a strategic partner.

India's opportunity

As Türkiye grapples with its internal contradictions, India appears poised to capitalise on the shifting strategic landscape. Rather than Türkiye serving as an important bridge connecting Europe and Asia, India, as a rising power, will gain advantages from Türkiye's self-sabotage. India has methodically strengthened its presence across Central Asia and West Asia in recent years, positioning itself as a stable democratic counterweight to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Trade statistics support this assessment: On the import side, European Union's share in India's exports has increased significantly, from 12.95 per cent in FY2015 to 17.37 per cent in FY2024. In terms of value, India's exports to the EU rose from $40.2 billion to $75.9 billion according to data from India’s ministry of commerce. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that Türkiye's position in regional trade has tightened,with exports to the EU stagnating despite favourable currency conditions.

What works in India’s favour is its geopolitical position and strategic use of trade routes, its growing ties with key West Asian states, its positioning as a democratic alternative for partnership in the region, and recent attempts to strengthen ties with the EU.

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), formally announced in 2023, strategically positions it to fill the infrastructure gap Türkiye's political instability might create. India has ambitions to become a green hydrogen hub that can produce and export hydrogen to West Asia and Europe. The Government of India has allocated $2.5 billion to produce 5 million metric tons of green hydrogen by 2030.

The economic impact

Türkiye's authoritarian turn has caused economic repercussions, including stock market declines. In the coming years, it will lose ground in trade and transportation — one of its most important sources of income — to India and other rising powers in Asia. This simultaneous diplomatic positioning is no coincidence but reflects a calculated strategy by India to exploit Türkiye's weakening geopolitical position.

When Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan faced criticism at a recent EU-Türkiye summit over the detention of opposition leaders, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was simultaneously meeting with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel to discuss new infrastructure initiatives linking Europe to Asia. Data shows the Turkish benchmark BIST-100 index fell 5.6 per cent in a single day following Imamoglu's detention, with the banking index plunging 8.5 per cent. India secured $42 billion in IMEC development commitments since 2023. Türkiye's logistics sector — which forms 12 per cent of its GDP — faces direct competition from India-backed alternatives. Diplomatic isolation coincides with economic vulnerability.

Conclusion

Can Türkiye maintain its privileged position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, or will countries like India successfully capitalise on the uncertainty emanating from Türkiye's democratic backslide? The evidence increasingly suggests the latter.

Infrastructure investment in corridors bypassing Türkiye has increased significantly. Projections suggest substantial Eurasia-Europe trade could redirect through India-backed routes. Democratic backsliding translates to geopolitical weakness. Economic indicators confirm Türkiye's diminishing regional power. India's methodical approach is succeeding where Türkiye's authoritarianism is failing.

(Sagar Vishnoi is Director & Co-Founder of Future Shift Labs. X: @sagarvishnoi. Views expressed are personal.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.