Uncle Sam wants you but he needs a Norwegian sales pitch

By James Stavridis

Last fiscal year, all of the US armed forces other than the Marine Corps and the tiny Space Force failed to hit their recruiting goals. The Navy missed a target of 37,700 by roughly 6,000 — and yet is hoping to bring in an even higher number of recruits this year to fill out total ranks of nearly 340,000. Similarly, the Army hoped to bring in 60,000 but fell 15,000 short. The Air Force and Coast Guard did a bit better, but likewise did not achieve their goals.

These recruiting shortfalls are occurring even as global missions for America’s armed forces are increasing. With the US backing up Ukraine and Israel in active combat and seeking to deter China from moving aggressively toward Taiwan, the operational pressures on all the services are rising. Navy aircraft carriers, for example, have been routinely extending their forward operational deployments from the traditional six months to eight or more, which stresses retention and recruiting. It’s understandable that few people want to live on a crowded steel ship with 5,000 people and sail away from loved ones for close to a year.

What is the root of the problem, and what should the services be doing about it?

The most important cause is simple: a booming employment economy. To join the military, you must shave your head, go through boot camp, and then subject yourself to a service assignment anywhere in the world. And that’s before you begin doing the hard and dangerous work of deploying and risking your life. A lot of young people simply say, “I can do equally well in a civilian job without all the danger and hassle of military life.”

Second, there is the bar to entry. For a typical national cohort graduating from high school, only 25 per cent can pass the current military requirements. The other 75 per cent are either obese, have other medical conditions (ADHD, asthma, orthopedic problems), have an arrest on their records or manifest significant mental health concerns. Thus the “qualified” 25 per cent are the subject of aggressive recruiting from employers and university admissions officers.

Additionally, and this may be counterintuitive to many, is that with the end of the “forever wars,” many young people don’t see the possibility of adrenalin-fueled combat operations like their predecessors faced in Iraq and Afghanistan. I’ve heard from many potential recruits that they feel they have missed out on the chance to fight in the so-called global war on terrorism.

Associated with this is a perception among some that the military has become 'woke' and politically correct. My own engagement with current active-duty personnel, from sergeants to generals, suggests this is a seriously overblown concern. Our armed forces spend the vast majority of their time on training for combat, not attending DEI seminars. Our military has long led society in racial progress and understands how to approach equality, maintaining the right overall emphasis on operational excellence.

Finally, the military no longer has stratospheric levels of public approval. While the troops are still broadly respected, the refrain of 'thank you for your service' at is dwindling. A recent Gallup poll showed around 60 per cent of people had 'quite a lot of confidence' in the military — the lowest in over two decades and 20 percentage points lower than in 2010. While still high compared to other public institutions (Congress clocks in around 15 per cent), faith has been declining rapidly. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was particularly harmful.

One approach to stem the crisis would be to loosen the entry requirements so recruiters could approach a greater number of young men and women. But this is controversial for obvious reasons. The Navy recently decided to permit recruits without either a high school diploma or a GED to enlist. The other services are considering a similar approach. This has not happened in the Navy for well over 20 years, and it brings real risk to the quality of the service: Recruits with lower educational credentials fail out of boot camp at close to 12 per cent, about double the rate of those with diplomas.

Next, good advertising helps. I remember the 1980s, when Top Gun came out and recruiting boomed. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the nation’s patriotic mood also spurred interest. But today’s generations are less likely to join the military to begin with, and the advertising campaigns have not been inspiring. One former mariner tells me he recently asked his son and his friends why they weren’t thinking of the military, and part of the answer was “the commercials suck.” This has to improve, perhaps with additional focus on technology skills like AI and cybersecurity, which are part of everyone’s job in today’s military.

One intriguing possibility European nations are looking at includes raising the profile and prestige of serving the nation. In Norway, for example, while military service is technically compulsory, actually entering the armed forces is a highly competitive process, with fewer than 10,000 taken in annually from a base population of around five million. The Norwegians use a combination of financial incentives and a powerful patriotic narrative (along the lines of the old US Marine slogan, “The Few, The Proud”) that only the best are allowed into uniform. Germany, Latvia and Sweden are considering similar systems.

Another path to consider is partnering with the private sector more effectively. Encouraging major US firms to think strongly about hiring veterans and having high-visibility programs to do so can have a powerful effect on recruiting. Many companies do this well, including those listed on Newsweek magazine’s annual survey of the top workplaces for veterans. The vast majority of these firms, by the way, are not defense contractors. More companies could be encouraged through tax incentives that reward engagement of veterans.

Finally, the services need to put their very best leaders in the field as recruiters. From the noncommissioned officers in the recruiting stations and online kiosks to the generals and admirals leading the recruiting effort, this is a time to put the top talent out front. Convincing others to serve the nation is more challenging today than at any point in recent memory, and the services need to persuade young people that military life is not just service, but a fulfilling and rewarding career.

Stavridis is also vice chairman of global affairs at the Carlyle Group. He is on the boards of Fortinet, NFP, Ankura Consulting Group and Neuberger Berman, and has advised Shield Capital, a firm that invests in the cybersecurity sector.