US pressure on India will test Modi government’s aatmanirbharta commitment

Behind the rhetoric of partnership lies pressure on India’s negotiators to yield on agriculture.

On February 7, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry released the framework of an Interim Agreement between the United States and India. The full details of the framework are still not in the public domain.

On February 9, the White House issued a fact sheet that has startled Indian observers. It starts with a claim that the trade deal will open the Indian market of ‘over 1.4 billion people to American products’. It claims that India will also eliminate or reduce tariff of certain pulses.

Pulses were neither mentioned in the February 6 Joint Statement nor in the February 7 PIB release.

In an unusual twist, on February 10, the White House revised its fact sheet, where it dropped ‘certain pulses’ from the revised version. Amid speculations and fear that a zero duty would cripple the pulses sector, this revision comes as a sigh of relief. Nevertheless, Washington, which has long had an eye on India’s huge agriculture sector, is unlikely to abandon efforts to further push.

Thus, the US is likely to continue negotiations on this topic. It is also quite possible that several critical points of agreement would still be behind the veil of secrecy.

The joint statements refer to the commitment to providing each other with preferential market access in sectors of respective interest on a sustained basis. Agricultural produce is surely a matter of great interest to the US.

India is not self-sufficient in pulses. In the last five years, imports accounted for nearly 10-16 per cent of domestic consumption. The share of imports had surged to over 35 per cent in 2015-2016.

Pulses are an important component of the National Food Security Mission (NFSM), under which efforts have been continuing to expand the cultivated area and achieve higher yield through improved seed varieties and modern agricultural practices.

Despite this, pulses have faced high inflation in several years, due to which the government allowed imports of pulses at zero or low duty. India imported 7.3 million tonnes of pulses in 2024-2025.

This included 2.2 million tonnes of yellow/white peas (largely from Canada and Russia), 1.6 million tonnes of chana (Australia), 1.2 million tonnes each of arhar (Mozambique, Tanzania, Myanmar, Sudan, and Malawi) and masoor (Canada, Australia, and the US). India also imported 0.8 million tonnes of urad (Myanmar and Brazil).

So, it is no surprise that the US saw an opportunity in the growing Indian market for pulses. In 2019, when the US increased duties on Indian steel and aluminum, New Delhi retaliated by imposing an additional duty of 20 per cent on 28 US products, including almonds, apples, chickpeas, lentils, and walnuts, bringing the total effective duty to about 55 per cent. In the same period, the masoor imported from Canada faced an effective duty of only 33 per cent. The retaliatory duty on US lentils was reduced in September 2023, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US that June.

In November 2025, India reimposed a 30 per cent import duty on pulses. This was done during the rabi sowing season to protect pulse growers who had been facing low prices in India’s APMCs.

In 2024, the US exported 1.12 billion dollars of pulses. India was the fourth largest importer (73.41 million dollars) after Mexico, Canada, and the European Union. So, for the US farmers, India can be a stable destination for future export of pulses.

In her Budget Speech of February 1, 2025, the Finance Minister referred to self-sufficiency in pulses. On October 11, a Mission for Aatmanirbharta in Pulses was launched by Modi. In addition to increasing the yield of pulses, the mission promised 100 per cent procurement of tur, masoor, and urad.

The mission did not quite succeed in Kharif 2025. The area of cultivated land under pulses increased by ~1.37 per cent over the previous year as farmers preferred maize (which saw a 10.6 per cent increase) due to the government’s preference for ethanol and low-price realisation for pulses in the last few years.

The demand for pulses is projected to reach 26.8 million tonnes by 2030, and 29.3 million tonnes by 2047. The government targets a 3.5-million-hectare area expansion under pulses. This would be possible only if the farmers can realise a fair price for their produce, and scientific research can deliver higher-yielding varieties (as achieved for moong).

Imports of pulses at zero or very low duty have jeopardised self-sufficiency goals in the past, as large imports depressed domestic prices. Pulses are a major source of protein for a large section of Indians. They fix nitrogen and are mostly grown in rain-fed areas.

So, we should not be surprised if India’s negotiators face ever-increasing demands to import agricultural produce at zero or very low import duty.

Siraj Hussain is former Agriculture Secretary to the Government of India. (X handle: @sirajnoida)