War jolts EU’s autonomy push

Compliance with the US line is testing the bloc’s economy and plans for an independent geopolitical order.

The United States-Israel war on Iran has dampened the European Union’s ambitious plan for a rules-based geopolitical order not hinged on Washington and its interests. All that zest and determination to carve out a new European identity, away from the domineering American establishment under Donald Trump that dangled the sword of tariffs, is gasping for air.

The chutzpah the EU displayed after Trump declared his intention to take over Greenland, the autonomous territory within Denmark, now appears to be a thing of the past. Few would even remember how Trump’s brazen plan infuriated the whole of Europe, leading experts to believe that it would power the region to find its own destiny delinked from that of Washington’s.

But no sooner had American and Israeli armed forces begun raining missiles on Iran – for reasons as varied as regime change and a direct threat to the US, not just Israel – than most European leaders hesitantly expressed support for the war, although they were careful not to get dragged into the fight.

Barring Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who became an icon of resistance by decrying the hugely disruptive war on Iran, European leaders chose to adopt “defensive” positions as the latest war in West Asia rages on with no clear exit plan.

Sanchez is the lone man standing against Trump, braving threats of a full trade embargo.

On the contrary, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he was on the same page with Trump on the need to get rid of the “terrible regime” in Iran, but later clarified that Germany had “no interest in an endless war.”

On a visit to the White House soon after the US-Israel combine launched their attack on Iran, Merz was a mute spectator seated next to Trump, as the American president went on a tirade against Sanchez.

Faced with a barrage of criticism for his silence, Merz clarified that he chose not to aggravate the situation by making any comments. He perhaps remembered how Trump and his vice president, J D Vance, berated Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a televised Oval Office showdown a year ago.

Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister, Yolanda Diaz, was scathing in slamming EU leaders for letting Trump trample all over it. “What Europe needs today is leadership, not vassals who pay homage to Trump,” she told POLITICO. She cited Article 1 of the United Nations Charter to term it an illegitimate war and reminded EU leaders to talk clearly in defence of international law.

France and Britain are the other big European powers that made it clear they would have no “offensive” role, although their armed forces were placed on alert to protect their boundaries and interests, especially after Iran targeted a British Royal Air Force base in Cyprus.

European leaders, except Sanchez, fell short of strongly reacting to a war they neither anticipated nor prepared for. As patience wears thin in the region, they know what is good for Israel is not good for even America, let alone Europe.

The economic fallout

For a region struggling with underperforming economies and massive unemployment, the timing of the war couldn’t have been worse. The euphoria over the India-EU “mother of all trade deals” had not even died down when the missiles targeted Iran, killing its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and much of its top leadership.

The escalation of the offensive has since affected the Gulf states and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping channel for energy security and trade, even for Europe.

Munich-based Ifo Institute, an independent economic research centre, has forecast that war-driven energy price hikes would badly affect the recovery of Germany, the region’s biggest economy. Experts warn of a similar impact in the entire region.

With Iran located approximately 2,000 km from the nearest European borders in Bulgaria or Greece, the EU is aware that the region is not entirely immune to the ongoing war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran pushed natural gas prices by 40 per cent as supplies of Liquefied Natural Gas from Qatar stopped.

The European Union Agency for Asylum has warned of a humanitarian crisis worse than the 2015 influx of a million Syrian refugees. European leaders fear that another round of refugee influx could enhance the support base for far-right parties that are already a huge concern.

The writer is a senior journalist based in Berlin.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.