<p>The second-generation autocrat of the Assad family, Bashar Assad, is widely regarded as one of the most notorious tyrants in the contemporary world. While the Assad family has ruled Syria for over five decades, Bashar alone has governed with an iron fist for more than two. The collapse of this decades-long tyranny marks a significant geopolitical shift in conflict-ridden West Asia, primarily paving the way for Israel to make strategic gains in the region.</p>.<p>Defying the United Nations’ condemnation for violating the 1974 agreement, Israeli defence forces have occupied not only the entire Golan Heights but also substantial parts of western Syria. Their goal is to create a 400-km buffer zone in the region beyond the Golan Heights. This move aims to sever Iran’s supply routes of arms and ammunition into Lebanon through Syria, said the Israeli defence minister. Additionally, the Israeli government’s recent approval of releasing $11 million as financial support for doubling Israeli settlement in the Golan Heights can be seen as a step towards realising the vision of Greater Israel. </p>.<p>Iran’s Axis of Resistance, connecting its military might to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, heavily depends on Syria. A post-Assad Syria disrupts this corridor, weakening Iran’s ability to project power in the Levant region. Iran’s heavy investments in Syria would be significantly affected, further straining an already heavily sanctioned economy. This economic setback will make it more difficult for Iran to support regional projects and proxies.</p>.A clueless govt's policies worsen farmer crisis.<p>The fall of Assad has also dealt a geopolitical blow to Russia, jeopardising its military foothold in the Middle East. With Moscow’s geopolitical reputation and strategic influence significantly diminished, the Kremlin has begun seeking alternative strategies to maintain its stronghold in the region. Recently, the Russian parliament passed a bill allowing the removal of the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations. </p>.<p>Meanwhile, pro-US Sunni Arab states may view Assad’s fall as a geo-strategic victory over Iran and Russia and could align with Israel to counter residual Iranian influence in the region. Pro-US Sunni Arab states may be happy to see the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, but the future administration of Syria under Abu Al-Julani-led HTS could pose challenges. Abu Al-Julani’s close ties to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, a historic rival to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may strain regional alliances. Amid this instability, Israel is poised to emerge as a critical military power, leveraging the changing dynamics to solidify its position in the region. </p>.<p>The US-backed Kurdish militia, the People’s Defence Unit (PDU)—part of the anti-Assad forces—seeks independent rule in post-Assad Syria. As the Türkiye-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel has a lead role in the anti-Assad forces, Türkiye would never let PDU’s dream of creating a separate state come true. Türkiye believes that the separate rule of Kurds in northern Syria would open a new front of conflict in the Middle East, encouraging the Turkey-based Kurdish militia to rebel against the Turkish government. Therefore, post-Assad Syria may continue to remain a scrambled and militarily disturbed region, further paving the way for Israel to continue strengthening its stronghold in the western part of Syria and strategically winning against Turkey, Iran, and Russia. </p>.<p>Following the takeover by the Taliban and HTS of Afghanistan (2021) and Syria (2024), respectively, and also considering their leaderships as their ideal, there is a greater possibility that the several Islamic terrorist organisations will also try to topple their existing autocratic and semi-authoritarian rule in Africa, especially in Central and Western Africa. These cascading effects may further help these organisations transition into governance through mainstream politics. </p>.<p>From the Iranian perspective, it has perhaps lost almost all of its proxy networks, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria, in the region. Now the question is: will Iran try to re-establish these proxies or go for full nuclearisation to tackle the offensive Israel, further creating huge instability in the region? The Trump administration’s exit from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) in his previous term is an alarming situation for the future of the Middle East. As Trump, known for his America First policies, will assume office for the second term starting next month, the UN and other international players must consider it a serious matter of concern and intervene. </p>.<p>India’s recent visit to Kuwait can also be considered a byproduct of the resulting instability in Syria, where India is continuously trying to look for an alternative to our hostile trading partners. Kuwait, being a member of the GCC, maintains a good relationship with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, which provides India an alternative to trade with other countries smoothly. </p>.<p><em><strong>(The writer is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi)</strong></em></p>
<p>The second-generation autocrat of the Assad family, Bashar Assad, is widely regarded as one of the most notorious tyrants in the contemporary world. While the Assad family has ruled Syria for over five decades, Bashar alone has governed with an iron fist for more than two. The collapse of this decades-long tyranny marks a significant geopolitical shift in conflict-ridden West Asia, primarily paving the way for Israel to make strategic gains in the region.</p>.<p>Defying the United Nations’ condemnation for violating the 1974 agreement, Israeli defence forces have occupied not only the entire Golan Heights but also substantial parts of western Syria. Their goal is to create a 400-km buffer zone in the region beyond the Golan Heights. This move aims to sever Iran’s supply routes of arms and ammunition into Lebanon through Syria, said the Israeli defence minister. Additionally, the Israeli government’s recent approval of releasing $11 million as financial support for doubling Israeli settlement in the Golan Heights can be seen as a step towards realising the vision of Greater Israel. </p>.<p>Iran’s Axis of Resistance, connecting its military might to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, heavily depends on Syria. A post-Assad Syria disrupts this corridor, weakening Iran’s ability to project power in the Levant region. Iran’s heavy investments in Syria would be significantly affected, further straining an already heavily sanctioned economy. This economic setback will make it more difficult for Iran to support regional projects and proxies.</p>.A clueless govt's policies worsen farmer crisis.<p>The fall of Assad has also dealt a geopolitical blow to Russia, jeopardising its military foothold in the Middle East. With Moscow’s geopolitical reputation and strategic influence significantly diminished, the Kremlin has begun seeking alternative strategies to maintain its stronghold in the region. Recently, the Russian parliament passed a bill allowing the removal of the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations. </p>.<p>Meanwhile, pro-US Sunni Arab states may view Assad’s fall as a geo-strategic victory over Iran and Russia and could align with Israel to counter residual Iranian influence in the region. Pro-US Sunni Arab states may be happy to see the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, but the future administration of Syria under Abu Al-Julani-led HTS could pose challenges. Abu Al-Julani’s close ties to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, a historic rival to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may strain regional alliances. Amid this instability, Israel is poised to emerge as a critical military power, leveraging the changing dynamics to solidify its position in the region. </p>.<p>The US-backed Kurdish militia, the People’s Defence Unit (PDU)—part of the anti-Assad forces—seeks independent rule in post-Assad Syria. As the Türkiye-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel has a lead role in the anti-Assad forces, Türkiye would never let PDU’s dream of creating a separate state come true. Türkiye believes that the separate rule of Kurds in northern Syria would open a new front of conflict in the Middle East, encouraging the Turkey-based Kurdish militia to rebel against the Turkish government. Therefore, post-Assad Syria may continue to remain a scrambled and militarily disturbed region, further paving the way for Israel to continue strengthening its stronghold in the western part of Syria and strategically winning against Turkey, Iran, and Russia. </p>.<p>Following the takeover by the Taliban and HTS of Afghanistan (2021) and Syria (2024), respectively, and also considering their leaderships as their ideal, there is a greater possibility that the several Islamic terrorist organisations will also try to topple their existing autocratic and semi-authoritarian rule in Africa, especially in Central and Western Africa. These cascading effects may further help these organisations transition into governance through mainstream politics. </p>.<p>From the Iranian perspective, it has perhaps lost almost all of its proxy networks, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria, in the region. Now the question is: will Iran try to re-establish these proxies or go for full nuclearisation to tackle the offensive Israel, further creating huge instability in the region? The Trump administration’s exit from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) in his previous term is an alarming situation for the future of the Middle East. As Trump, known for his America First policies, will assume office for the second term starting next month, the UN and other international players must consider it a serious matter of concern and intervene. </p>.<p>India’s recent visit to Kuwait can also be considered a byproduct of the resulting instability in Syria, where India is continuously trying to look for an alternative to our hostile trading partners. Kuwait, being a member of the GCC, maintains a good relationship with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, which provides India an alternative to trade with other countries smoothly. </p>.<p><em><strong>(The writer is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi)</strong></em></p>
