West UP's Jat-Muslim equation key to Phase One

Muslims are 29 per cent and Jats 7 per cent of West UP's population, combine the two, and it's a formidable grouping

Ticket distribution is always a tricky time for parties in a fiercely contested election such as that in Uttar Pradesh, which votes in seven phases starting February 10 to March 7. The tickets for the seats that vote in the first phase have been announced, and various eruptions have taken place. Some problems have been articulated in what is called the Jat belt of West UP, and there have been loud fights and complaints and sulking hopefuls in the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)-Samajwadi Party (SP) combine.

In one seat, the RLD candidate has also filed his nomination, although the joint leadership has decided that the seat would go to the SP. In another seat, a wealthy Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defector, who got a ticket from RLD, mysteriously announced he could not contest the election, giving rise to speculation about income tax and enforcement threats forcing him to withdraw.

Things have been smoother for the BJP in ticket distribution as the party is not structured in a manner in which candidates would loudly protest against the leadership. Some may leave, but since many had no real standing and won on a Modi wave -- that extended from the 2014 Lok Sabha to the 2017 assembly polls and again in the 2019 national elections -- they are inclined to accept the party diktat.

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Yet things are challenging for the national party on the ground, as visible in the viral video clip of BJP MLA and candidate Vikram Saini, shared on January 20, from Khatauli in West UP being chased away by villagers of his constituency. He represents the Saini OBC group. In another instance, there were reports of the Gujjar OBCs driving out a BJP candidate.

Yet, it is the Jat community that played an epic role in the growth and consolidation of the BJP in UP in recent times, just as they now could be the catalyst to an anti-BJP sentiment palpable in parts of West UP. Flashback to the year 2013—2014: anti-incumbency was rising against the ruling UPA at Delhi, completing its second term, and the Anna Hazare movement of 2011 had by then created an electric mood for change. Against this backdrop, the Muzaffarnagar riots broke out in August-September 2013 between Jats and Muslims and actually laid the ground for a certain momentum that the BJP rode on.

This was the era when rumours about "Romeo squads" allegedly of Muslim youth were spread, and Hindu-Muslim relations ruptured. The worst othering of minorities since Partition reached a pitch on the grounds of West UP. In 2014, Narendra Modi shifted to national politics, promising "Ache Din" (Good Days) even as the soil was fertilised with communal propaganda. (It must be noted that although the Ram Janmabhoomi movement had catapulted the BJP to national prominence, it is only in the post-Modi era that the BJP made a thorough conquest of the nation's most populous state.)

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Against the backdrop of the damaged social relations with Muslims, present in large numbers in UP's Jat belt, the Jat community voted vigorously for the BJP in 2014, 2017 and 2019. According to the Lokniti-CSDS data, in 2014, 77 per cent of UP Jats voted for the BJP, while in 2019, due to the Pulwama-Balakot cycle of events in the run-up to the general election, as many as 91 per cent of Jats voted for the BJP.

The 2013 riots had also ruptured the traditional vote bank of the RLD, which is now led by Jayant Chaudhary, the grandson of Charan Singh, a former PM and arguably the tallest UP Jat peasant leader. A vocal community with high representation in the armed and police forces, Jats are spread across Punjab (Jat Sikhs), Haryana, parts of Rajasthan and the sugarcane belt of UP.

But the mood would again dramatically change after the Modi government brought in the farm laws. The Jats of Punjab and UP were at the forefront of the year-long agitation, in the course of which many decided, along with other farming communities, that the BJP is an anti-farmer force. This was clearly the main reason why Prime Minister Modi abruptly withdrew the farm laws on November 20, 2021, just before election season began.

The farm movement also repaired some of the social fissures. The Jat-Muslim combine, the traditional RLD, and Charan Singh social base can, if it works perfectly, be a deciding factor in many assembly seats that vote in phase one of the election. One rough estimate is that Muslims make up nearly 29 per cent of the population and Jats about 7 per cent. Combine the two, and it's a formidable grouping. There are challenges, such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) putting forth several Muslim candidates and the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM also pursuing the Muslim vote. However, most minority voters would still be opting for the 'front' more likely to challenge the BJP in the state.

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Simultaneously, it would be prudent to note that this anti-BJP sentiment is more absolute in Punjab than in UP, where a small section of Jats will still vote for the BJP if they do not like the candidate put up by the RLD-SP alliance. And after the current round of seat distribution, they are unhappy about candidates in a few seats. In one instance, a Muslim candidate has been put up on a seat named Siwalkhas that currently falls in district Meerut. The Jats believe the RLD should have fielded a candidate from their community. The joint candidate, Ghulam Mohammad, an old SP hand, will contest on the RLD symbol.

Indeed, that seems to be the rub of the problem, with many Jats complaining that the RLD symbol has in some seats been given to candidates that the SP has selected. Yet, it would be incorrect to see this through the prism of a Jat-Muslim divide, although the BJP on the ground is projecting it as such. This emanates from the intense competition for tickets and the Jat belief that they shifted the narrative for this election with the farm agitation and should, therefore, have a larger chunk of seats and representation. Besides, farmers' leader, and Jat figure, Rakesh Tikait is again expected to go to Lakhimpur-Kheri, where a minister's son ran over protesting farmers. That can keep the anti-farmer pitch of the opposition alive.

Meanwhile, unity between Jats and Muslims in the first phase of voting is more than just an arithmetical composition. If it holds, it sends a signal against the communal polarisation that was so much part of the architecture of the house that the BJP built for itself in Uttar Pradesh.

(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and an author)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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