What 2026 signals for 2029

Seshadri Chari reads between the lines on big national and international developments from his vantage point in the BJP and the RSS.

The results of the recently held Assembly elections in four states and a Union Territory have been more or less on expected lines. If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s sweep in West Bengal and the emergence of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) under C Joseph Vijay as the single-largest party in Tamil Nadu surprised the pundits and the media, they probably missed a fundamental lesson: hard work, eventually, pays in politics.

The BJP’s West Bengal victory comes after years of groundwork by lakhs of party workers and astute planning by Amit Shah. Voter resentment against the (not so easily) outgoing chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, accelerated this political shift.

Three aspects of the overall results need to be discussed. One is that the BJP has expanded its footprint beyond the Hindi belt. The victory in West Bengal, along with the return to power in Assam, gives the BJP a geography that spans the North-East and states bordering Bangladesh. The three seats in Kerala and one in Tamil Nadu may not be consequential to the big picture, but they are anchors for future growth.

Second, the weakening of the Dravidian hold in Tamil Nadu’s politics may place the relevance of the north-south divide in question. The third aspect is the continued decline of the Congress party, which has governments in four states but is nowhere near being an alternative to the BJP. The disconnect between the central leadership and the state units is best evident in Kerala.

There have been instances of state assemblies not being constituted long after the election results due to fractured verdicts. But what unfolded in Kerala might probably have no parallel. Even after a decisive victory over the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) was not able to name the chief minister even in 10 days after the results. V D Satheesan – eventually chosen for the office – will face the fallout of factionalism that was on full display in the CM race.

After the initial jitters, the TVK-led coalition seems to be consolidating a majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly. The only way the Dravidian parties could have captured power after the results was to come together and forge an alliance.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leadership realised that such a step would not only compromise their hold over a section of the electorate but also throw a lifeline to the sinking All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). As was expected, the AIADMK faced yet another revolt against its leadership and witnessed a vertical split, with the rebel faction joining hands with the TVK.

This should be a lesson to the BJP, which allied with the AIADMK at the cost of one of its most popular leaders who opposed the move. The BJP may want to do some serious rethinking and effect a course correction in its organisational structure in the state.

The election results are likely to have far-reaching consequences on the national stage. The Tamil Nadu verdict has signalled the beginning of the dismantling of an entrenched narrative – that the south and the north are different and their divides are unbridgeable. The Dravidian parties, which were an offshoot of this narrative, have lost to a party that transcended the narrative. Though the TVK does not include the Dravidian identity in its name, it is doubtful if the party will veer away from Dravidian moorings, as the new Chief Minister prefers to eulogise the Dravidian icons as much as he projects his Christian faith publicly.

In these circumstances, with a weakened Congress, only the BJP appears positioned to offer a pan-India alternative to parochial identities. But that will require a strong leader and a larger presence at the grassroots.

Another significant takeaway from the results is the total rejection of the Left parties, coming after the centenary year of the movement in India. With the Communists out of power in Kerala, the Congress will have a greater hold on the minority vote. This leaves a sizeable portion of the Hindu votes open to the BJP, which has a significant task in improving its base in the state.

The lessons from 2026 will spur all parties on as they set out for a series of elections over the next three years. But it is the BJP, with higher stakes and a well-oiled election machinery, which appears set for the pole position in the race that will lead up to the 2029 prize.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)