What direction will Kerala politics take after the general elections?

A confident Congress is battling a defensive Left in Kerala. The BJP is in for the long haul and can improve its prospects if it maintains this momentum

The 2024 general elections in Kerala present distinct challenges for all three major political fronts. It's intriguing how their fortunes have reversed since the 2021 assembly polls: the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M))-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) now finds itself in a precarious situation; the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) radiates confidence; and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) emerges as a significant topic of discussion.

It will be interesting to see the trajectory in which Kerala’s politics will move from this juncture.

2026 state polls a priority; thwarting BJP threat secondary

Had the Congress and the CPI(M) truly believed that the primary objective of the current elections was to counter the BJP threat at the national level, they could have chosen to contest as a unified front — I.N.D.I.A. — in Kerala too. This unified approach could have potentially led them to secure all 20 seats in the state, and keep the BJP at bay.

The Congress harbours aspirations of claiming the bulk of Lok Sabha seats and was reluctant to share prospects with the CPI(M) from the beginning. Opposition leader V D Satheesan’s willingness to shoulder responsibility for any disappointing performance by the party in the elections also indicates his readiness to take credit in the event of a favourable outcome. On the other hand, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has refrained from making similar assertions. This contrast in confidence reflects their differing expectations regarding the election results.

Naturally, the focus of these staunch adversaries is on the 2026 assembly polls. The Congress sees a significant opportunity to regain power after a decade’s hiatus, particularly as the ruling CPI(M) grapples with allegations of corruption, nepotism, bad policing, and financial mismanagement. The CPI(M) faces substantial anti-incumbency sentiment, exacerbated by more recent challenges such as delayed distribution of salaries and shortage of commodities in civil supplies stores. This is where the Congress senses an opportunity.

Save for very few national issues, the discussions during the campaign trail were centred on state-specific issues. Leaders from both the Congress and the CPI(M) seemed more interested in accusing each other of indirectly supporting the BJP's political expansion and engaging in clandestine agreements with the party. Even Congress leader and the party’s candidate from Wayanad Rahul Gandhi and Chief Minister Vijayan did not spare each other.

Potential shift in loyalties

Both the Congress and the CPI(M) are vying for the favour of the same voter base, which includes significant Muslim and Christian minorities. The CPI(M) has long positioned itself as the guardian of minority interests and has championed their causes. This has posed a dilemma for the Congress, as it is torn between maintaining its voter base and supporting initiatives brought forth by the CPI(M) in favour of minorities.

Both the Congress and the CPI(M) have been contemplating the possibility of forging alliances with more partners ahead of the assembly polls. Recently, the Congress’ strongest ally, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) had even entertained offers from the CPI(M) to collaborate on common issues, adding to the complexity of alliances. A positive result for the Congress will put to rest such apprehensions, and may even prompt the Kerala Congress (M) to quit the LDF, further weakening the CPI(M).

BJP’s coming of age

It's noteworthy that a considerable portion of the election campaign has revolved around the state BJP that currently has no representatives in the assembly or the Lok Sabha. The ongoing general elections will herald the onset of a robust three-way political contest in Kerala.

Traditionally, both the Congress and the CPI(M) have marginalised the BJP from mainstream political discourse, dismissing them as a party that fails to resonate with the conscientious voters of the state. However, this scenario is poised to change, as the BJP is expected to make significant gains in its vote share. It is demonstrating winnability in at least two constituencies — Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur — and it may even warrant a tacit understanding between the UDF and the LDF to keep the BJP from winning.

The shift in the BJP central leadership’s stance towards the Kerala unit is noticeable. Amplified by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s repeated visits to the state, the BJP’s campaign has remained robust and has surprisingly not lost steam as the election date approaches as has been the case in the past.

Ultimately, it appears that Kerala’s future political landscape will increasingly pivot around the BJP, and the current momentum could extend to more assembly constituencies in 2026.

(Sreejith Panickar is a political commentator. Twitter: @PanickarS.)