Where’s the level playing field?

As we get closer to the general elections, State-run agencies are in the process of picking off Opposition leaders one after the other, in the process making it easier for the ruling BJP

There are good reasons to berate the Opposition for not getting its act together for 2024: it has held up seat sharing and continues to pull each other down. It looks bad — especially as the broadcast media amplifies every Opposition flaw. But let it be understood that there is no level playing field and the next general election will be something of a Hunger Games, the dystopian novel and hugely successful film franchise, where the districts are forced to participate in a fight to the death where all the rules and referees were in the hands of the ruthless Capitol.

Should the Opposition look like getting its act together, many of them who face the threat of arrest, would certainly be behind bars (they could end up incarcerated anyway). It’s not normal times as two chief ministers, Arvind Kejriwal of Delhi, and Hemant Soren of Jharkhand, who face imminent jail terms and both have ignored repeated enforcement directorate (ED) summons.

Kejriwal had been pushing for an understanding with the Congress in Delhi, Haryana, and Punjab, but many senior leaders of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have been incarcerated and the powers of the elected government in Delhi, circumscribed. With the clock ticking, the possibility of an understanding between AAP and the Congress appears to have slipped away. In the case of Soren, he is in power in Jharkhand in alliance with the Congress and is a tribal leader, a social category the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is laying claims to represent.

Last week, we saw despicable scenes in West Bengal when ED officials were attacked by a mob when they went to search the house of Shahjahan Sheikh, a zilla parishad member of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in connection with the ‘PDS scam’. In a state known for a culture of political violence, the fact that the TMC strongman — for whom the ED has now issued a ‘lookout’ notice — is a Muslim is a gift-wrapped campaign issue for the BJP.

The BJP is looking to hold on to the 18 seats it won from West Bengal, which sends 42 MPs to Parliament. Likewise, in Maharashtra and Bihar, which sends 48 and 40 MPs respectively to the Lok Sabha, there are alliances in place that include the Congress. The assault on those daring to stand against the BJP is getting new dimensions in these parts.

As is known, in Maharashtra, the pincer of ED and property seizure had a role in the split of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), both parties whose founders continue as part of an Opposition alliance. NCP chief Sharad Pawar has some months ago seen his nephew Ajit Pawar join the BJP government (where he is now Deputy Chief Minister) due to the carrot-and-stick approach.

Now the ED has moved on to the next generation, and Pawar’s grand-nephew Rohit Pawar seems to be in their sights in connection with the Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank scam. (Till he joined the current government, Ajit Pawar was fiercely targeted by the BJP for the so-called irrigation scam). In Bihar, it is Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav who can be arrested should there be a calculation that it would help the BJP more than hurt. The son of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) founder Lalu Prasad, he is the most significant campaigner in the state and the RJD the biggest party in the ruling alliance.

Although data on political finance reveals that the BJP is the richest party ever in India’s history, there are no scams that involve the arrest of its members.

The Congress leadership does not face imminent arrest because it suits the BJP to posit them as the alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi; also because in direct contests regional parties have a better record of defeating the BJP. Yet, intriguingly, it is from an influential section of the Congress that a line is now being tested. A conversation has begun on whether the party should start talking about a boycott of national polls on the issue of electronic voting machines (EVMs). This line picked up after the election commission (EC) turned down the Opposition request for a match between 100 EVMs and VVPAT slips.

Meanwhile, let it also be said that if the BJP regime in New Delhi was confident of re-election and so loved by all people across India, then the systematic picking off of Opposition figures via the ED would not be necessary. Counter-intuitively, across India, Modi does appear to be in an excellent position for re-election, because, if we liken the upcoming elections to a football match, one side will wear shiny new jerseys and control the referees, while the other side will find many players being shown the red card and sent off the field. The commentators will be cheering for the wealthy side, and will not note that fires are being allowed to be set if the challengers come near the goal.

(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.