Why Pakistan risks walking into a geopolitical minefield

A puzzled onlooker is once said to have asked a Pakistani mob protesting about Palestine, “Bhai, yeh bataain…..Falasteen ka rasta kidhar hai?” Then suddenly a nonplussed protestor shot back enthusiastically, “Rasta humein bhi nahin pata, bas dil se wahan kharay hain!” This engagement personifies the popular sentiment in the only country in the world to have been created in the name of a religion i.e., Pakistan, or literally, ‘The land of the pure’.

Pakistan’s natural affinity with the Palestinian cause is predicated on Muslim unity (Ummah) and identity (with Al-Quds mosque in Jerusalem assuming spiritual significance) and, therefore, Palestine’s suffering assumes a religious context of jihad (struggle), Sabr (patience) and Zulm ka Muqabala (resistance against oppression). While it has been the rallying cry for the political leaders and even poets — the latest interest in Palestine could be for purposes that are conveniently distractive, geopolitical, or even desperately commercial.

The pummelling of the narrow Gaza strip that was triggered by the Hamas-led terror attack in 2023, has since led to a disproportionate and unsparing retaliation, accounting for a little over 67,000 Palestinian deaths and the devastating flattening of Gaza. But the fighting and violent counter-targeting hasn’t subsided, still. Both sides sense the sheer inability to either accept unconditional defeat or continue fighting, given the unacceptable human and financial costs. Both need a face-saving truce and pull-back to old lines — but that would need a mutually acceptable security provider to fill the gap.

The complication is, Hamas is not completely obliterated as the Israelis would have the rest of the world believe, and the Israelis will never accept the return of Hamas-led security apparatus. Then, there is the issue of instinctively non-acceptable options and certain other countries that just don’t have the militaristic, political, or moral heft to step in. Leading the simply unacceptable countries are Iran and Türkiye. Effectively incapable are the Arab nations like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, etc., who are meekly toying with the idea of a joint-Arab force, but haven’t shown the individual courage.

This situational morass puts the spotlight on Pakistan — militarily the most powerful Islamic country (the only nuclear-powered in the Ummah). It is also the most experienced Islamic nation to have conducted overseas deployments i.e., 46 different United Nations missions, bilateral deployments, and training missions in countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, etc., all-in-all with over 250,000 Pakistanis deployed abroad under the ‘Blue Helmet’ missions or in their own uniforms, since independence. History suggests a reasonably professional, disciplined, and effective conduct, in conflict zones like Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Sudan, etc., or even in the West Asian theatre of serving in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Yemen, etc. They are also battle-hardened with urban conflict (given their situational concerns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or Balochistan) or in providing humanitarian and relief, and rehabilitation support.

But intervention in the Gaza Strip is a completely different kettle of fish, given the layered complexities, despite the plausible opportunity to serve the ostensible ‘Palestinian cause’. A possible nudge from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and even Israel notwithstanding, the Pakistanis potentially walk into many traps. First, such a move is tantamount to recognising Israel as a sovereign nation, something the Pakistanis have steadfastly avoided, despite many Arab sheikhdoms having accepted the same. But diplomacy aside, it potentially puts the effectively defenceless Pakistani security forces (even if they were to be armed — as opening fire is not an option) at risk from fire from both sides, targeted or unintended. There would always be pressures from the Israeli side to ‘control’ effectively, and be held accountable to any fire into Israeli territory, as if it were the Pakistanis who were responsible. Portents of an inadvertent Israeli-Pakistani firefight are unimaginable beyond words.

On the flip side, such an intervention by Pakistanis could also be seen as a matter of noble duty towards Palestine and flexing of its sovereign capability — a rare legitimacy that the Pakistani ‘establishment’ (read, military) and Field Marshal Asim Munir in particular, desperately seek domestically, as also currying favour with Donald Trump. Financial gratification from such an intervention (both directly from Israel, or in the form of US ‘aid’) would be life-sustaining to a Pakistani economy reeling under an estimated $23 billion in external debt servicing needs in 2025-2026. Even the Arab sheikhdoms that are known to ‘outsource’ security needs to countries like Pakistan would be spared the blushes and could chip in to the Pakistani coffers for providing security services to stabilise the region. With Saudi Arabia backing Pakistan, both the mullah (cleric) and the moolah (much-needed money for the depleted coffers) get served.

But ‘mercenary service’ (even under the guise of a peacekeeping force) in the Gaza Strip can come with some incalculably grave consequences. It runs the risk of lumping Pakistan with countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which are believed to collide with Israel, as also triggering sectarian tensions with a brooding Iran (known to be supporting Hamas) watching disconcertingly. It was similar concerns that deterred Pakistan from sending its security troops to Yemen in April 2015, as it wanted to avoid taking sides in the geopolitical muddle, risk triggering sectarian undercurrents, and avoid being seen taking sides in the war within Ummah. Today, governmental stand aside, many in the Ummah perceive Hamas as the last force standing up to Israel, and the spectre of Pakistanis potentially getting paid by Israel/US (to control or worse, ‘disarm’ Hamas) would hardly ingratiate them in the angry eyes of the Islamic world. Pakistan has a difficult choice between the devil and the empty coffers.

(The writer is a former Lt Governor of Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)