Will Imran Khan upset Pakistan’s military, political elite?

Regardless of final the results, the Pakistan Army and the ISI have been dealt a blow. The people are tired of corrupt dynasts and authoritarian regimes in Pakistan.

The unpredicted has happened in Pakistan where 128 million people were registered to vote for elections to the 16th National Assembly on February 8. 

The Good News: Despite all speculations of Pakistan’s military establishment planning to stall it indefinitely, elections took place. Following the Supreme Court intervention, the caretaker government, headed by the Pak Army-ISI pick, paved the way for the 16th National Assembly. 

The Bad News: The run-up to elections and polling day was marred by widespread violence, with even multiple fatalities. A blanket ban on mobile connectivity on February 8 left voters struggling to find their booths and questions were raised if the elections were free and fair. 

The Surprise News: Beating all commentary of the elections being rigged, fixed, or a given, Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) loomed large. Against all odds, PTI claimed that it was leading in about 125 of the 266 seats, according to initial trends. Stalwart three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was expected to make a safe comeback to power. Instead, he was seen trailing 70-year-old jailed PTI leader Yasmin Rashid and Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) was leading in only 44 seats. While the Bilawal Bhutto Zardari-led Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was at 28. 

Earlier there was news about the media being removed from various counting stations as security was beefed up. The announcement of results and the political speeches that follow have been on hold even hours after the polling ended. Rawalpindi, where ISI’s headquarters is located, misread the ground mood and did not see this wave in favour of Khan. The generals were scurrying for damage control, and political realignments started shaping up from Lahore to Larkana between the PML-N and PPP camps. 

It is a Catch-22 situation. Nothing could be more humiliating for the military establishment than a thumping vote for its once blue-eyed boy it helped come to power in 2018. Khan as Wazir-e-Azam (prime minister) challenged the Pakistan Army’s unquestioned hold over national security issues, and got ahead of himself in key appointments including the ISI chief. It crushed him and his PTI top brass, and he faced convictions on a barrage of frivolous charges. Yet Khan has upset election results from behind bars.

Denying the results or upturning the leads though could lead to violence and rioting with Khan’s supporters raging with anger. 

A narrative is already being spun that the media in Pakistan jumped the gun with an insignificant per cent of initial results that came in being projected as conclusive trends.

“Never ever was there such a situation after 1970…the public today has decided to stand with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf”, Khan is seen telling the electorate in a 34-second video clip released by his party on X ahead of the elections. Can this be another watershed moment like 1970, when Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the Awami League leader of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) won an absolute majority that erstwhile dictator General Yahya Khan refused to accept? 

Regardless of final the results, the Pakistan Army and the ISI have been dealt a blow. For a country that has witnessed martial law four times and indirect establishment control over its civilian elected governments since its birth, this is the battle for democracy. The people are tired of corrupt dynasts and authoritarian regimes in Pakistan. Khan, the quintessential outsider, cricketer-turned-politician, has caught the popular imagination after decades of ‘fixed matches’. 

The tables were also turned this election as anti-military trade became Khan’s plank, while Sharif — who is known for his criticism of the army — was measured in his campaign since he returned to Pakistan from London. Popular sympathy on the ground was also channelised strongly through social media by the PTI which faced a crackdown by the regime. 

The flame that Khan has lit is dangerous too. His term as Wazir-e-Azam was marked with several flaws including a sharp economic decline and security challenges. He can be a maverick like former United States President Donald Trump with his calls to supporters to take to the streets. Scenes similar to the January 6 Capitol Hill riots played out in Pakistan at the Islamabad High Court premises in May as Khan was arrested by paramilitary rangers. A crown of thorns awaits Khan if General Asim Munir decides to let him out of jail eventually. Pakistan faces multiple crises — food security and energy crises, increasing strife in restive provinces, huge IMF (International Monetary Fund) debts, and borders on the boil. 

For now, it is a battle for political survival. Can Imran Khan against the rest of Pakistan’s political and military elite lead to a churning in its democracy? India watches quietly hoping these flames don’t spread within and beyond Pakistan’s borders. 

Smita Sharma is a journalist and Visiting Faculty, Kautilya School of Public Policy. Twitter: @smita_sharma. 

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)