Will India be forced to deal with a resurgent Taliban?

Ending months of suspense and speculation, the US and the Taliban finally signed the deal to end the war in Afghanistan on February 29, 2020. As per the deal, the US and its allies will gradually reduce troop presence in Afghanistan. They are expected to withdraw all troops from the country within the next 14 months.

Additionally, the US will work to lift its own and the United Nations' sanctions on the Taliban. The deal also sets the stage for intra-Afghan talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government led by President Ashraf Ghani.

The peace deal was signed in Doha, Qatar and the signing ceremony was attended by many countries in the region including Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Qatar, and India. The deal is expected to finish the longest war in American history in which about US$2 trillion were spent and about 2,400 Americans, as well as about 100,000 Afghans, were killed.

The deal is significant in the context of Afghanistan’s emerging political and security situation. By signing the deal with the Taliban, the US has acknowledged its importance in Afghanistan's future. Besides, by not involving the Afghan government in the negotiations, the US has undermined its legitimacy and weakened its position vis-a-vis Taliban.

As the Taliban is expected to play an increasingly larger role in the future of Afghanistan, many are worried about the future of democracy, gender equality, cultural diversity, and women’s rights in Afghanistan.

The deal is expected to facilitate the peace process in Afghanistan. However, due to the lopsided nature of the deal, in which, analysts agree, the US has made major concessions and the Taliban has not given away anything significant, the Taliban is likely to feel emboldened.

It is well-known that the US had entered Afghanistan to punish and ultimately oust the Taliban from power in the wake of the September 2001 terrorist attacks. However, in a strange way, the peace deal is likely to facilitate the return of the Taliban to the power structures of Afghanistan.

Graveyard of empires

Afghanistan is known as the graveyard of empires. In the last 200 years, three major powers, the British in the 19th Century, the Soviet Union in the 20th Century and now the US in the 21st Century have been humbled in the battlefields of Afghanistan.

Afghanistan’s difficult geography and ethnically divided society make it difficult for any external power to govern Afghanistan effectively. The US was no exception to this reality and had to confront it the hard way. In the last 19 years, the US has attempted to build a modern state in Afghanistan.

However, the Afghan state installed by the Americans is weak, dependent on external support and cannot militarily defeat the Taliban. The stalemate on the battlefield and inability of the US and Afghan forces to keep the Taliban in the check has led to the situation where the Taliban controls large parts of the country especially in the east and south Afghanistan.

Pakistani support to the Taliban and sanctuaries enjoyed by the group in border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan allowed the Taliban to regroup. Over the years, the Taliban has gained in strength and is now in a position to influence the future course of the country.

As the Taliban prepares to negotiate and pressurise the Afghan government by launching deadly attacks, Pakistan’s support will prove crucial. It will provide the Taliban greater flexibility in its dealings with the Afghan government. In this context, India is worried about the growing influence of Pakistan in Afghanistan and the implications of the evolving political scenario within Afghanistan for India.

Indian concerns

The last time the Taliban was in power -- from 1996 to 2001 -- anti-India terrorists found sanctuaries in Afghanistan. Through the Taliban, Pakistan controlled large parts of Afghanistan and trained anti-India terrorist groups in Afghanistan. India would like to see that such a sequence of events will not be repeated in Afghanistan.

Along with Iran and Russia, India had supported anti-Taliban fighters in the 1990s. However, times have changed now. The Taliban of 2020 is different from the Taliban of the late 1990s. Therefore, there are expectations that it is likely to behave differently if it comes back to power.

In the last few years, Iran and Russia have warmed towards the Taliban and therefore will not be worried about the Taliban takeover of the country as much as India. India, at least publicly, has not engaged with the Taliban and remains anxious about its role in Afghan politics.

Moreover, India’s chief worry continues to be Afghanistan becoming a base for Pakistan-supported anti-India terrorists. The deal between the US and Taliban calls on the Taliban to not support terror groups such as Al-Qaeda, which launch attacks on the US and its allies. It is unclear whether India is included in the category of US ‘allies’.

Thus, after the deal, India will have to grapple with the reality of a strengthened, resurgent Taliban and the lack of any meaningful external support to the Afghan government. It means India will be forced to take steps to engage the Taliban in some way, perhaps covertly, and also prepare for supporting friends of India within Afghanistan.

In the future, if Afghanistan descends into civil war, the ensuing instability would affect the entire South West Asia and may perhaps even spill over into Central Asia. Therefore, stability in Afghanistan is crucial for regional peace and security.

Can New Delhi find sufficient diplomatic willingness to play a relatively proactive role in Afghanistan for protecting its interests and support pro-India groups remains to be seen. Meanwhile, in the context of intra-Afghan talks, India will be keenly watching the evolving political trajectory of Afghanistan.

(Sankalp Gurjar is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. Views are personal.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.