JOIN USWill Russia and US go to war over Ukraine?
Ukraine, a lower-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, with a population of 43 million and an area of 603,550 square kilometres, finds itself in the crosshairs of the United States and Russia. Recently, the presidents of both the countries met virtually to discuss the latter's overtures on the borders of Ukraine, where Russia has positioned 100,000 of its troops, hinting at a massive military attack on the country. During the meeting, President Joe Biden threatened Russia with severe economic sanctions if it did not pull back its forces from the Ukrainian borders. Some analysts said its déjà vu 2014 when Russia had annexed the Republic of Crimea without as much as firing a gunshot.
The history
We need to reflect on three significant years to decipher the situation today and understand Vladimir Putin's fascination for Ukraine. Until 1991, Ukraine was part of the USSR, when Putin was climbing the KGB ladder. That year, the USSR fell apart, and Ukraine, among other countries, became an independent country. Ukraine had always been viewed as part of the Russian cultural hegemony and an extension of Russia by the likes of Nikolai Gogol. The second important year in this timeline was 1999, when Putin ascended to power after Boris Yeltsin's ouster. From the beginning of his tenure, first as the prime minister and subsequently, in successive terms as Russia's president, Putin has been vigilant about his legacy, of laying the ground for being remembered as a 'great leader'. Russia, we must note, measures greatness with territorial expanse and not economic development of its people.
The year 2014 is the third important year, which saw the unseating of the Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych. He had declined fervent appeals for Ukraine's greater integration with Europe, resulting in widespread violent protests in Kyiv and other major cities. Yanukovych had to relinquish his post ultimately and take refuge in Moscow. Throughout his reign (three terms as the prime minister and a single term as the president between 2002-14), he was seen as Moscow's man. Putin took Yanukovych's removal as a personal affront to his leadership and as a western conspiracy to thwart the expanse of his ambition. In the ensuing months, thousands of Ukrainian citizens were killed by the 'rebels', who also went on to, probably accidentally, shoot down Malaysian Airlines 17. Over 14,000 of its citizens have been killed since 2014, Crimea has been annexed, and several parts of Ukraine are in Russian control.
Also read: What’s driving Putin’s Ukraine brinkmanship?
What will Putin do next?
Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has made claims that Russia is not only preparing to invade the country but also to remove him in a coup. It is not uncommon to see an autocrat claim another country as his own territory and deny its citizens their sovereignty and history. In this case, it is Putin who claims Ukraine as Russian territory. As we are aware, Ukraine became an independent country in 1991, but it was the seat of a medieval kingdom, which emerged in the 10th century Kyiv and ruled the current day Ukraine, Poland, Russia, and Belarus. It is this origin that both the Russians and the Ukrainians lay claim to. This is also the history Putin wants his country to hark back to, thereby making his indelible mark on the Russian society.
Earlier this year, Putin published his 5,000-word essay describing Ukraine as a western 'project' and said the country "is entirely the brainchild of the Soviet era and was to a large extent created at the expense of historical Russian lands." Throughout this diatribe, Putin continues to say that "I am convinced that true Ukrainian sovereignty is only possible in partnership with Russia. After all, we are one people." His assumptions are perfectly in line with populist leaders of countries bent upon taking their countries to their golden pasts and making them great again.
Will there be a war?
Biden is not looking to engage his country in a war with Russia, particularly after the recent experience in Afghanistan. Yet, he will do his best to maintain (or reclaim) the American hegemony in world politics. Albeit, it can be safely said that the American special forces will not be fighting in Kyiv. However, the US can ensure that Ukraine has all the tools it needs to unsettle the Russians. Putin, on the other hand, does not like unpredictability. This was one of the reasons Russia does not have a big footprint in Syria. It did not know which way it might have gone. Putin also knows if Russia does go through with its veiled threat of attacking Ukraine, NATO might get involved in what could end up becoming Europe's biggest land war since WWII. Putin perhaps believes he can overpower Ukraine without having to enter a full-scale war, and hence, the positioning of his army is an overture to Biden to come to the negotiating table, to withdraw support for Ukraine. If anything, this posturing has given him the headlines, the meeting with Biden, and the attention he so dearly seeks. It has also won him the first round of his preferred coercive diplomacy – the endgame of getting Biden to pledge to keep Ukraine out of NATO.
(The author is a former Chief of Communications with UNICEF in New York, where he worked for more than a decade.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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