Will Union Budget see slew of promises for poll-bound states?

The precedent already exists in the form of announcements for Bihar in the last Budget

A Union Budget is never simply about economics. The political dimension always has a significant impact on this annual exercise, which the incumbent government attempts to utilise to convey a strong message to the electorate about its stance on various issues and key priorities.

It will be interesting to see what the upcoming Budget contains by way of announcements for the four states — Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal — where Assembly polls are to be held over the next few months. Except for Assam, the three poll-bound states have non-NDA governments.

Given the continuing global headwinds, a key question is whether Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be able to come up with something special for these states in the Budget. Such measures could be aimed at driving home the message to electors in these regions about how they could benefit from ‘double engine’ growth made possible when both the state and the Centre are led by the same political formation.

This exercise becomes even more exciting in the backdrop of the slew of announcements related to Bihar in the Budget 2025-2026. Elections to the Bihar assembly were held in November, with the incumbent NDA government returning to power by a thumping majority. The cash transfer scheme for women announced before the polls by the state government also contributed to this result.

In the upcoming Budget, what should be looked out for are the developmental measures announced for West Bengal and Kerala, where the promise of ushering in more development and that too rapidly can be the BJP-led NDA’s biggest calling card.

Tamil Nadu already has the highest GDP after Maharashtra, and so the NDA may have to come up with something extra beyond just the ‘double engine’ message to bolster its chances there. The Budget could be used to send across the message of the NDA’s deep respect for the unique culture and traditions of Tamil Nadu, even if there are no specific giveaways for the state.

The BJP is the main Opposition in West Bengal, where the incumbent Trinamool Congress government is chasing a fourth straight term. In Kerala, the BJP is still a third force, but its influence has been steadily growing.

The considerable political capital that the BJP has been expending in West Bengal is good proof of how seriously it is attempting to form its maiden government there. As in the last state polls, the TMC has been aggressively playing the local card and citing alleged discrimination against West Bengal by the Union government to ward off the BJP challenge.

Since it is already well entrenched in Assam, the necessity to use the Budget to announce several mega projects for the state may be less for the Narendra Modi government. However, a few could still be expected to strengthen the ‘double engine’ narrative ahead of elections in the state.

However, there is no escaping the reality that a Union Budget affords an excellent narrative-setting platform, especially during key election years, and the one to be announced on February 1 this year is likely to continue that tradition.

(Sumali Moitra is a current affairs commentator. Views expressed are personal. X: @sumalimoitra)