Winning the narrative war

The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran and the US’ capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro have been framed as ‘regime change’ operations. This is not the first time the superpowers have tried to topple governments. Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 are examples. A closer look at these operations, however, reveals narratives carefully crafted to validate the actions.

In Iraq, the narrative was based on the claim that the regime under Saddam Hussain possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction. Maduro was accused of drug trafficking. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader killed in the strikes, was accused of human rights violations and projected as a threat to both the US and Israel. The war in Ukraine is being fought over a perceived security threat to Russia and human rights violations against the Russian-speaking population. The real causes remain elusive.

Narrative wars are typically steered through multi-domain operations, with control of the information flow – tailored for the domestic and international audiences – at their centre. The pattern of domestic projections varies between democracies and countries under autocratic regimes. The superpowers have often turned a blind eye to global opinion when pursuing a strong narrative. The ongoing war in West Asia is no exception.

The conventions of warfare – the acquisition of intelligence, followed by analysis and dissemination – find a new expression in the narrative space, with AI set to play a significant role. The application of the saam daam dand bhed formula still holds sway. The narrative extends to economic coercion, cyber warfare, diplomatic manoeuvring, activation of non-state actors, triggers to internal unrest, and finally, the application of kinetic means, all targeted to break the adversary’s will.

The narrative of the war against Iran was set during Donald Trump’s first term as President, when the US withdrew from the nuclear deal and imposed large sanctions. Operation Midnight Hammer of June 2025 and the abduction of Maduro were capability demonstrations. The 2026 protests in Iran against the administration and the subsequent elimination of its leadership were part of the larger narrative for regime change through domestic uprising.

However, the US seems to have underestimated the regime’s resilience and deep controls in the clergy and the military. It remains to be seen whether the pause on strikes against Iran’s power infrastructure is tactical or a real attempt to usher in peace.

So what are the takeaways for India? The narrative wars of this century will be fought with AI as one of the primary tools. This shift necessitates putting together robust counter-strategies. Staying ahead of the curve is no longer an option. The ones who don’t gain control of the narrative will soon become the narrative.

Deterrence through multiple means

Acquisition, analysis, and synthesis of intelligence with speed will be the key. Our inability to stall the Parliament attack in 2001, the Mumbai attack in 2008, and the Pahalgam attack in 2025 didn’t reflect well on our intelligence capabilities. Conversely, an efficient and shortened OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) loop was evident during our precision strikes on the terrorist bases and airbases in Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, indicating a well-coordinated and synthesised intelligence system.

Cyber and information warfare have a direct impact on economic growth, energy security, and industrial development – the pillars of national security. In an October 2025 cyber-attack on the United Kingdom, sensitive files of eight RAF and naval bases were stolen, causing a serious security breach. These transgressions are becoming increasingly integral to modern-day conflicts; while inflicting damage on a nation’s strategic resources, they also feed the narrative war by exposing the vulnerabilities of the adversary.

These strategic risks make it imperative for nations to be self-reliant in their AI, communication, and technological needs. Data sovereignty and technological innovation have become vital components in the security apparatus of nations.

The importance of continued modernisation of the three wings of military, the indigenisation of critical military/civil hardware, multi-layered communication satellites, and advanced missile delivery technologies cannot be overemphasised. The times call for AI-enabled air defence systems; we must also augment abilities for mass production of low-cost attack drones.

Modern wars can cause irreversible devastation of societies and economies. Preventing or curtailing them through deterrence is the smarter thing to do. Strong narratives can build this deterrence. Sun Tzu’s philosophy lends some context – “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skills”.

The writer is a strategy and security analyst

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)