Sri Lanka's descent into chaos, both economic and political, is undoubtedly a matter of grave concern for India, not just as a close neighbour but also because of the island nation's geo-strategic location in the Indian Ocean.
With a state of emergency being declared in Sri Lanka on Wednesday, prolonged instability does not bode well either for Sri Lanka or India, intertwined as their destinies are by virtue of geographical proximity and civilisational links. That Sri Lanka is also the playground for major powers' contestation is yet another dimension that New Delhi has to remain mindful of amidst the turmoil there.
And yet, New Delhi would, in all likelihood, be happy to see the back of the Rajapaksas—they've given it much grief in the past with their pronounced tilt towards China, showing scant regard for India's security concerns.
Even so, the absence of a cohesive functioning government in Colombo has only added to New Delhi's anxieties. There is also the worry about the possible flood of refugees if the island nation is unable to get its battered economy back on track.
The political vacuum in Sri Lanka could also delay its ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for a $3 billion bailout package. This could further exacerbate the island nation's economic woes. New Delhi knows it cannot go on financially supporting Sri Lanka indefinitely.
While the economic crisis that has caused the nation's government to declare bankruptcy had been brewing for long, not many perhaps had anticipated such a premature and inglorious end to Gotabaya Rajapaksa's authoritarian regime.
Forced to flee the presidential residence in Sri Lanka on July 9, Gotabaya sought refuge in the Maldives just four days later in the face of the escalating Aragalaya (struggle) of the common people.
Even Gotabaya, who came to power in 2019 riding on a campaign centred on Sinhala-Buddhist majoritarianism and promises of national security based on his 'strongman' image—the Easter Sunday bombings had taken place a few months before elections—could not have foreseen his ignominious exit.
Countrywide protests that began in the island nation and at Colombo's seafront Galle Face a little over three months ago culminated in the storming of the presidential residence on July 9. Forewarned about the impending storming of his citadel, Gota managed to flee the residence.
Photographs and videos of people taking a dip in the presidential pool, relaxing on the beds, using the gym equipment and playing music on the grand piano have since gone viral.
These defining images reflect the immense discontent against a government that failed to deliver and brought the country to a stage where there is no money in its coffers, and Sri Lankans are grappling with soaring inflation as well as crippling food and fuel shortages.
India has wisely thrown in its lot with the people of Sri Lanka, saying that it stands by them "as they seek to realise their aspirations for prosperity and progress through democratic means and values, established institutions and constitutional framework". New Delhi was also swift to quell rumours that it had dispatched troops to Sri Lanka, as also reports that it had helped Gota flee Sri Lanka.
Both Gotabaya and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had agreed to step down, though neither had handed in their resignation until Wednesday morning. Instead, in a controversial move, Wickremesinghe was declared acting President by Gotabaya on Wednesday morning.
Amid a fluid political situation, New Delhi would be keeping its fingers crossed and hoping that the Opposition would be able to cobble together an interim all-party government soon.
But this process itself could be fraught and long drawn given the differences among the political parties in Sri Lanka and the public anger against the Rajapaksas. Their party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Perumana (SLPP), holds a two-thirds majority in Parliament. There are fears that this would mean that the SLPP would still continue to exercise control even under a new president.
For Sri Lankans tired of the Rajapaksa dynasty's misrule, the only option then would be fresh elections. But holding these could take some time, and therefore political uncertainty is likely to continue.
With its mantra of 'Neighbourhood First' and its vital strategic stakes in the island nation, India cranked up assistance to Sri Lanka. Until now, New Delhi has provided over $3.8 billion worth of support to the beleaguered nation.
Sensing an opportunity to counter China's deep inroads, India quickly stepped in with immediate assistance, providing fuel and food through lines of credit to the bankrupt nation. It also dispatched medicines, medical supplies and other humanitarian assistance to Sri Lanka.
In addition, it decided to roll over the currency swaps, with Sri Lanka now battling its worst-ever economic crisis since it gained Independence from the British in 1948.
India has also provided under a credit line 44,000 MT of much-needed urea to the island nation, declaring that this symbolises India's commitment to the Sri Lankan people, including its farmers and to its food security.
But one country alone cannot help Sri Lanka recover from its economic collapse. While President Gotabaya had begun reaching out to the envoys and leaders of various countries to help, these efforts came rather late in the day.
Ironically, China, which has been relentlessly increasing its footprints in the island nation, aided in no small measure by the Rajapaksa clan, has been barely there for Sri Lanka in its hour of need. It provided Sri Lanka $33 million as aid but no monetary assistance. Its lukewarm response to the Rajapaksas' call for support is believed to be driven by Colombo's inability to repay its loans.
Sadly, Sri Lanka, a country which proudly measured itself against European benchmarks rather than South Asian ones and provided free healthcare and education up to college, now finds itself holding out a begging bowl.
Several factors contributed to this. Like many other nations, Sri Lanka is also a victim of China's 'debt trap diplomacy'. Huge China-funded infrastructure projects like the port in Hambantota or the Mattala international airport –– executed when Gota's older brother Mahinda was president — have proven to be expensive yet non-productive assets, contributing to Sri Lanka's economic woes as it struggles to repay the loans.
Then, there were a series of disastrous economic decisions. The reduction in VAT, tourism taking a hit first because of the Easter Sunday terror strikes and then the pandemic, a ban on chemical fertilisers, though well-intentioned but which hit agricultural production and tea exports taking a knock because of the Ukraine war, all combined with bad governance led to the economic distress.
India, which has been emphasising deeper economic linkages between the two countries, has redoubled its efforts to help Sri Lanka. Deputy National Security Adviser Vikram Misri recently chaired an inter-ministerial meeting to discuss sectors where these linkages could be strengthened. Greater cooperation in the energy, power, and infrastructure sectors and the development of the strategic Trincomalee port are among the moves under consideration.
Colombo, of course, has had its own hesitations in this regard – it does not want to be overwhelmed by a bigger economy. New Delhi will need to assuage Sri Lankan concerns on this front. It will need to swiftly seize the day once the new political dispensation is in place in Colombo, now that Beijing is out in the cold, at least for the time being.
(The writer is a senior journalist.)
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