After big-bang Cabinet rejig, BJP on to next

It’s been a tough year, politically, for the BJP government at the Centre. Narendra Modi’s government took plenty of flak for its often erratic response to the worst health crisis in a century, and the party lost key electoral battles amid the mayhem.

Modi’s first response has been to bring about sweeping changes to his Council of Ministers, notably creating a fall guy in health minister Harsh Vardhan. But while this may go some distance towards addressing any public disgruntlement with his government in New Delhi in the three years to the Lok Sabha polls of 2024, there are more immediate challenges that demand a response.

This is what is at stake: Elections in seven states, in six of which the BJP is in power, and facing anti-incumbency and anger over its handling of Covid-19.

This means that the next step after the rejig of his ministers is a shake-up of the party organisation, and the contours of this are beginning to emerge.

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Political analyst Badri Narayan says the BJP has set the trend by giving representation to all sections — OBC/SC/ST — in the Cabinet reshuffle. "However, in the party reshuffle, the BJP will focus more on good organisers. The party will look at drafting efficient persons to ensure results at a time when the tide is turning against it," he says.

There's a personal stake for the party's top bosses in at least two states: Gujarat is the home state of Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah while Himachal Pradesh is the home state of BJP chief J P Nadda. And it doesn't get any bigger than Uttar Pradesh, where Yogi Adityanath's government is up for re-election: Some see him as an internal rival to the BJP top brass.

The party structure has been extraordinarily stable in the middle and lower rungs, probably following the 'If it ain't broke don't fix it' dictum. But now the time for change in the top echelons seems to be ripe. Brace for an overhaul in the party's apex decision-making body BJP Parliamentary Board, Central Election Committee and the Executive Committee, and for new names in the state units, where it desperately needs a facelift.

Organisational roles

Five former CMs and half a dozen former Union ministers could be given organisational roles.

Setting the ball rolling, the BJP on Thursday named former IPS officer K Annamalai as its Tamil Nadu chief in place of L Murugan, who joined the Modi government as a minister of state. Forty-five-year-old Pushkar Singh Dhami was earlier made the chief minister of Uttarakhand while former IAS officer and BJP MLC A K Sharma, considered close to the prime minister, was made the vice president of the party in Uttar Pradesh.

A fortnight ago, the party announced new state chiefs — Bhavesh Kalita for Assam, which the BJP won for the second time this year, and Sharda Devi for Manipur. In UP, the party plans an overhaul in six regional and 2,000 divisional units. BJP General Secretary (Organisation) B L Santhosh and UP in-charge Radhamohan Singh had had several rounds of meetings with the state leadership.

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Cabinet expansion and a change of guard is imminent in Tripura, where Santhosh was rushed last month to broker peace in the face of mounting dissent against CM Biplav Deb.

A number of changes are likely in many states, but all eyes are on the all-powerful BJP Parliamentary Board, where five vacancies are to be filled.

New faces will come in place of M Venkaiah Naidu (who became the vice president) and following the deaths of Ananth Kumar, Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj, and the appointment of Thawarchand Gehlot as Karnataka governor. After the last reconstitution of the Board in 2014, there has been no recast, though general secretaries were shuffled last year after Nadda became the party president.

A number of women leaders could be given key roles in the party structure. Nirmala Sitharaman or Smriti Irani could be drafted in the Parliamentary Board while the replacement of Gehlot could be a leader from the Dalit community like Dushyant Kumar Gautam.

Rewarding good performers

The party rejig will also seek to reward good performers. Former Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis is a key contender. While it remains to be seen which of the ministers dropped from the Cabinet gets included here, the race could boil down to Ravi Shankar Prasad and Prakash Javadekar.

Former health minister Harsh Vardhan is likely to go back to his home turf Delhi, where the party needs to do some serious ground work after being out of power for more than two decades. Elections in Delhi are four years away.

The reconstitution of the National Executive and Central Election Committee of the party is also due. The BJP needs an energetic leader to replace Bhupendra Yadav, who, as the general secretary, looked after the crucial states of Bihar and Gujarat. One of its national vice presidents, Annapurna Devi, also joined the Council of Ministers. With both Yadav and Devi joining the Cabinet, the party wants a well-known OBC face in organisational role.

"The new Cabinet of Modi ji represents the whole India. The prime minister gave constitutional status to OBC Commission and responsibility in nation-building to OBC by giving them big representation," UP CM Yogi Adityanath said, indicating the party's future strategy.

Another key slot is BJP's Leader for Rajya Sabha, which fell vacant after Thawarchand Gehlot was made Karnataka governor. The contest may be between Dharmendra Pradhan, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi and Piyush Goyal.

The saffron party also wants to signal that there are opportunities for turncoats, especially after Mukul Roy returned to Trinamool Congress after joining the BJP in 2017. Some others, including former railway minister Dinesh Trivedi who switched over to BJP from TMC this year, could be accommodated in the BJP organisation.

Former Uttarakhand CMs Trivendra Singh Rawat and Tirath Singh Rawat may be moved to the organisation, after the party appointed 45-year-old Pushkar Dhami as chief minister.

Dhami's selection sends a loud message to other states: The party won't mind a newcomer when old faces fail to enthuse.