For Thackeray and Shinde, the going gets tough now

Exactly a year after the Balasaheb Thackeray-founded Shiv Sena split changed the political course of Maharashtra, the going gets tough for both Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde in the run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls.

For both Thackeray and Shinde, they want a negotiation point of 2019 for the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha seat-sharing formula when the Shiv Sena was undivided - as neither the Congress-NCP would accept the demand of now Shiv Sena (UBT) nor BJP would give in to the demand of Shiv Sena.

What is concerning for Thackeray is the split seems to be widening - the Shinde-faction commands 40 of the 56 MLAs and 13 of the 18 MPs. All the three Rajya Sabha MPs are with Uddhav, but now two MLCs too have switched sides to Shinde.

Also Read | BMC razes Uddhav Thackeray's Sena branch in Bandra, calls it 'illegal'

There are also talks about whether the general and state Assembly elections would be conducted simultaneously but the possibility appears remote at this stage - as the new Shiv Sena-BJP government is safe and faces no challenge opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, the tri-party conglomerate comprising the Sharad Pawar-led NCP, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress.

Interesting developments

The ensuing monsoon session is going to be interesting as the Thackeray-group would demand that Speaker Rahul Narwekar decide on the issue of disqualification of 16 MLAs including Shinde.

While the Shiv Sena led by Shinde, the Chief Minister, would have a tough task to deal with the seat sharing with the state BJP leaders and the ultimate stamp of approval of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

On the other hand, Thackeray faces a similar challenge in tackling the NCP and the Congress.

What is a matter of suspense in the state is the long-pending local bodies polls which include which besides Mumbai include Thane, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan-Dombivali, Ulhasnagar and Mira-Bhayandar and Bhiwandi-Nizampur, all in Thane district, Panvel in Raigad district and Vasai-Virar in Palghar district. The big corporations that are headed for polls include Pune and its sister city Pimpri-Chinchwad, Solapur, Nashik, Malegaon, Aurangabad, Nagpur and Amravati.

“In case these are held these would be a sort of dry run ahead of the 2024 elections and would be a litmus test. However, there are no signs of it and the matter is in the Supreme Court…the local bodies polls would involve more than 50 per cent of the state's population and would be held in the rural hinterland and cities,” a senior politician said.

If one goes to the MVA alliance, the NCP and Congress had made it clear that merit would be the issue and not the seats that Shiv Sena contested last time. However, the Thackeray-group has expressed displeasure and have stuck to the demand.

On the other hand, if one looks at the Shinde faction, the demand is growing to assert itself before the BJP and not to succumb to BJP’s pressure and tactics of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and state BJP President Chandrashekar Bawankule.

Shinde’s son Dr Shrikant Shinde has openly spoken out about some BJP leaders saying that they want to contest the Kalyan seat - which is represented by him.

“The seat sharing in Maharashtra is a very difficult task. In some cases it has actually gone to the last hour of filing of nominations. This time, it is going to be more complicated as there are new permutations and combinations and old formulae are not going to work,” says veteran political analyst Prakash Akolkar, who has written three books on Maharashtra politics including the first biography of Shiv Sena.

According to him, since the last one year the state is witnessing a blame game. “If one looks at the parallel foundation day events, not much about the common people was discussed. It is already the end of June and the rains are yet to make its presence felt in the state where farmers are already under stress. There are issues of price rise, inflation and so on,” he said.