Rising risks of changing monsoon in India

The India Meteorological Department expects a slightly below-normal monsoon this year, at about 92 per cent of the long-period average. The possibility of a ‘super El Niño’ adds further uncertainty. With nearly half of India’s net sown area — contributing around 40 per cent of food production — being rainfed, even small rainfall deviations can disrupt sowing cycles, reduce yields and threaten food security.

While extreme events like droughts are known to severely affect agriculture, smaller variations from normal can be equally damaging, especially without strong systems to support climate-resilient farming. 

The idea of a ‘normal’ monsoon can be misleading. A national average may appear stable, but it can mask sharp regional variations, leaving some areas far more exposed than others. Repeated small disruptions also point to a system that responds better to crises than it prevents them.

The real issue is not just total rainfall but its timing and distribution. In recent years, the monsoon has become increasingly erratic. Even when overall rainfall appears ‘normal,’ uneven distribution can cause serious problems, including delayed sowing, damage during critical crop stages, sunk costs and repeated replanting. 

In other words, a near-normal monsoon can still lead to poor outcomes. Even small shifts in rainfall patterns can ultimately affect farmers, markets, the government and the wider economy.

India does have some safeguards. Buffer stocks help ensure food availability when supply is disrupted and the government has used export controls during El Niño years to manage price rises. However, these measures have limitations, as implementation is uneven and they often involve difficult trade-offs.

While rice and wheat are well stocked, pulses and oilseeds remain far less secure. At the same time, policies such as open-market sales and export restrictions can sometimes work against each other.

They may lower prices below the Minimum Support Price, hurting farmers even as they aim to protect consumers. This trade-off creates a persistent tension between keeping food affordable and ensuring farmers earn a sustainable income. 

Importantly, these interventions are largely reactive. While they may help manage short-term disruptions, they are not sufficient to address rising climate variability and volatility. As weather patterns become more unpredictable, the focus must shift from responding to crises to building systems that can withstand them.

Gaps in the system

The deeper challenges lie in the structural issues of Indian agriculture. Despite several government schemes focused on irrigation, insurance and procurement, significant gaps in implementation persist. For instance, the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) aims to expand irrigation coverage and improve water-use efficiency.

However, bureaucratic delays, low awareness and unequal access — especially for small and marginal farmers — limit its impact. These challenges are further compounded by differences in how states implement such programmes.

As a result, water-intensive farming practices continue, and farmers remain vulnerable to risk. 

Even with a normal monsoon, regional rainfall surpluses or deficits can sharply reduce crop yields. For farmers, especially small and marginal holders, who account for nearly 89 per cent of landholdings, this directly impacts income, as many lack irrigation, savings or reliable insurance and often depend on informal credit.

At the broader level, this affects the wider economy. Lower farm incomes reduce rural spending, which can slow economic growth. Even the expectation of a poor monsoon can lead households to cut back on consumption and increase savings. 

Moreover, food inflation adds another layer of risk, accounting for about 37 per cent of overall inflation and being highly sensitive to supply fluctuations. Fear of shortages can also trigger hoarding and price spikes, creating a self-fulfilling cycle where speculation itself fuels inflation. The burden falls most heavily on vulnerable groups, widening inequality and the rural–urban divide.

Building a more resilient system

Addressing this challenge requires a shift from reactive to proactive policy design. This includes promoting climate-smart agriculture practices that use water efficiently, strengthening crop insurance systems and improving local weather information services. It is equally important to ensure these solutions reach small farmers and are tailored to local conditions.

In this regard, technological initiatives that provide real-time, localised climate information to farmers are a step in the right direction, helping them respond to small variations before they turn into major losses.

For example, the Government of India recently launched Bharat-VISTAAR (Virtually Integrated System to Access Agricultural Resources), an AI-powered digital public infrastructure that offers timely, accurate and localised climate and agricultural information to farmers.

However, the impact of such interventions will depend on widespread adoption and institutional support.

Small changes in rainfall may not grab headlines, but their impacts are widespread and accumulate over time. In a future shaped by climate uncertainty, these subtle shifts could pose the biggest challenge. It is therefore essential to recognise and address this invisible risk. Without strengthening the system’s ability to absorb frequent, moderate shocks, small deviations risk snowballing into large-scale disruptions. 

(Anika Dhiman is an analyst in the Adaptation and Risk Analysis team, and Shweta Gupta is a senior associate in the Sustainability team at the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP)).