State polls: The semis before 2024

As many as nine states are going to polls in 2023. The year could also see a 10th electoral battle if the Centre finally gives its nod to conduct polls in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

The polls in 2023 are not only the semifinals before the parliamentary polls next year. The results will of course give a hint or two about the way the wind will blow in April-May, 2024. They will also measure the survivability of many political leaders and, of course, put to test once again the idea of a united Opposition.

Even for the ruling BJP, which gloats about its electoral invincibility, the 2023 elections are not a smooth run. The party leaders, however, are not much bothered about the ‘semifinals’ though. They cite 2018 polls, which did give the opposition parties a boost, but it is the saffron party, which had the last laugh as it retained power by winning more seats in 2019 than it had in 2014.

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Infighting plagues both the BJP and the Congress in all the big states – Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – going to polls. B S Yeddiyurappa, the BJP’s vote-catcher in Karnataka, is unhappy, while Vasundhare Raje is still flexing muscles in Rajasthan. Questions are being asked within the BJP itself about the future of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and former Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh.

The Congress too faces leadership tussles in several poll-bound states – Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh in Madhya Pradesh, Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar in Karnataka, Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel and T S Singhdeo in Chhattisgarh. In Telangana and the north-eastern states, it is a battle of survival for the Congress.

The CPI (M) will seek to return to power in Tripura, where the assembly polls will determine the fate of the Congress. It is also to be seen if the Trinamool Congress’s entry can weaken the opposition’s fight against the ruling BJP.

Nagaland is now the only state without an Opposition and it is to be seen if it gets one in 2023.

While a nationwide pre-poll alliance is ruled out, leaders are exploring state-level coalitions to effectively take on the BJP. The early signs are not encouraging for the Opposition. The Aam Aadmi Party’s national ambition got a boost after its victory in Punjab and its foray in Gujarat. Will it now venture into uncharted territories and end up further splitting votes against the BJP and its allies?

The BJP wants to replace the Congress as the main opposition party in Telangana and dislodge the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) government led by K Chandrasekhar Rao from power.

The conduct and the performance of the opposition parties will be keenly watched in every assembly election next year. One of the biggest tests will be in Karnataka.

Will the BJP beat the anti-incumbency wave? Will the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) bury the hatchet? After the polls, whom will the JD(S) extend support to – the BJP or the
Congress?