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AP delivers a shocker, but YSR's hold on Delhi may loosen

Last Updated 16 May 2009, 19:02 IST
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The voters of Andhra Pradesh have spoken so loudly and clearly that they have shocked into silence politicians and experts alike. While exit polls gave a slight edge to the ruling Congress, nobody anticipated that the Opposition would be wiped out. The Telugu voter has dumped into the dustbin of history parties like Praja Rajyam Party notwithstanding the cine glamour of Chiranjeevi; Telangana Rashtra Samiti notwithstanding the emotional attachment to Telangana (in the region) and the two Left parties notwithstanding their claims of being with the people. The only party to be spared is the Telugu Desam Party which has managed to improve marginally its tally in the Lok Sabha. Out of 42 seats in AP, Congress improved its standing from 29 seats in 2004 to 33 now; TDP got six seats from five; TRS won two as against five in 2004 and the CPI and CPI (M) lost the two seats they had between them. As in 2004, BJP failed to win even a single LS seat.
Congress had gone all alone while TDP had formed a Grand Alliance with the two Left parties and TRS as part of the Third Front. However, last week TRS quit Third Front and joined the NDA which promised to bring about Telangana state in 100 days of it forming the government. The PRP that was formed last August amidst huge expectations of Chiranjeevi doing an NTR who swept into power in 1984 within nine months of launching Telugu Desam Party, failed miserably to make an impact on the voters, who did not give him a single LS seat and less than 20 seats in the Assembly.
Experts believe that the Telugu voter has matured and displayed a measure of sophistication in thinking by strengthening Congress at national level, while restraining it by giving it a solid balance by sending a strong Opposition team of TDP to the Assembly.
While the victory is a big plus for Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy considering he will be sending one of the largest contingents of MPs from one state, it is believed that he might not yield as much power at the Centre as he did in the last five years. The solid majority of UPA will make the Centre less susceptible to the pressures of regional satraps like YSR and to that extent YSR’s hold is likely to be loosened. The second rung leaders in Congress are hopeful of getting their voice through to the party high command.

Money & liquor

What factors went in favour of Congress? While some point out that money and liquor flowed like water...anywhere between Rs 8000 crore to Rs 12,000 crore were spent in AP alone, others believe a mix of the developmental programmes of the Congress government and the party’s central leadership played a role. Prof S Simhadri of Osmania University pointed out that UPA’s representative character, as an umbrella organisation of various groups and ideologies that stood for the common people, and Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s personality as a sobre, gentle, motherly, balanced and mature leader helped consolidate Congress votes.
Prof Keshav Rao Jadhav believes it was the weakness of the Opposition parties rather than the strengths of the YSR regime that gave it the second term. “With people going through unimaginable suffering, with farmers and weavers committing suicides regularly and the condition of the poor worsening, I believed the subjugated people would speak out against Congress, but apparently no opposition party’s, especially Praja Rajyam, had the means of converting it into votes for themselves,” he said.
The return of the YSR regime and the UPA at the Centre, however, is worrying activists working to protect the people’s rights to common resources like water, land and forest. V S Krishna, state secretary of the Human Rights Forum said it was a “dreadful” development. “It is a very bad scenario for democratic movements. That the BJP has been kept at bay is a small comfort; it is going to be disastrous for the people fighting for control over  resources.,” he said.

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(Published 16 May 2009, 19:02 IST)

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