US Elections: Winning the popular vote isn’t enough

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won three million more votes than Donald Trump in the popular vote. Still, it was Trump who became President. Thanks to a system called the Electoral College, Americans vote for the President, but they do not elect him/her. It is the Electoral College that does.

So, what is the Electoral College?

The ‘Electoral College’ is a group of people who meet once in four years, some weeks after the November presidential election in which the people cast their votes, to elect the President and Vice President of the US. These officials – the electors -- are nominated by the political parties, mainly the Democrats and Republicans, in each state. The system was arrived at as a compromise by the founders between having a directly elected President and one chosen by the US Congress.

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How many electors does each state have?

Each state (and the District of Columbia) has the same number of electors as the number of representatives it has in the US Congress. California, the most populous state has 55 representatives in the US Congress, and so 55 electors. Texas has 38 representatives, and so has 38 electors, and so on. There are a total of 538 electoral votes, or electors with one vote each. To win the presidency, a candidate must win one more than half the number of electoral votes – that is, 270.

So, who do Americans vote for on Election Day – the president or the electors?

Americans surely do vote on ballot that has only the names of the presidential and VP candidates, but what they are actually voting for is the “slate” of electors.

And how do the electors vote?

In all but two states – Maine and Nebraska – the system followed by convention is called “winner takes all.” That is, the candidate who wins the most popular votes in a state gets all the electoral votes also of the state.

That’s why the race between the presidential candidates to win as many states as possible. But since most states in the US also are either Democratic or Republican strongholds, those states that could swing either way become ‘battleground states’, where the candidates focus their campaigns.

Which are the ‘battleground’ states?

The key ‘battleground’ states are Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. In addition, this time, as Biden has closed the gap with Trump in traditionally Republican states, Texas, Arizona and a few other states experiencing a ‘Blue Shift’ have joined the group.

Can the electors vote against the popular vote?

In practice, all the electoral votes go to the winner of the popular vote in the state. Very rarely, electors have voted contrary to the popular vote. In 2016, seven of the 538 electors voted for someone other than the winner of the popular vote in their state. These are called ‘faithless electors.’

32 states and the District of Columbia have laws to reign in ‘faithless electors’, while in some other states, such a vote may be cancelled and the elector replaced. In July, the US Supreme Court ruled that states have the authority to punish ‘faithless electors.’

When will the Electoral College meet this time?

The Electoral College is scheduled to elect the President and VP on December 14 this year.

So, will we know who won the presidential election on November 3 or on December 14?

Well, in a normal election, we should know who is going to be the next president of the US as soon as the votes are counted on November 3. But twice in the last 20 years – in 2000 and in 2016, the Electoral College has decided the matter (2016) or the court has had to step in (2000). So, unless either Biden or Trump win a landslide victory on November 3, we may not know who won until December 14.