In the 48 hours before the government introduced a one-week lockdown in Bengaluru on July 14, thousands fled the city for other districts and states. Data now suggests that these people contributed to a sudden surge in cases in other districts.
According to the Department of Transport, nearly 30,000 people, primarily labourers, left the city for their home districts.
Before the Covid-19 “surge” on June 21, an average of 14% of all Covid-19 cases in the state were in Bengaluru from June 1 to June 20. When the surge began on June 21, an average of 44% of all statewide cases were from the city. The biggest share was reported on June 29, when 67% of all state cases were in the city. However, days after people left Bengaluru in droves, the city’s share dropped to its lowest of 28% on July 27.
Tellingly, that same day, several other districts registered triple-digit percentage increases over the figures they had seven days before. Experts have described new cases as being a reflection of the situation at least seven days before.
Kalaburagi, for example, registered 631 cases (a jump of 408%), Udupi (225 cases - a 129% increase), Ballari (840 - a 259% increase) and Belagavi (155 - a 158% rise).
“We saw something similar in Maharashtra where the virus spread to cities like Pune and Nagpur,” said Dr Giridhar Babu, epidemiologist and Expert Committee member, who had predicted that people fleeing Bengaluru would push up cases in districts.
“Existing evidence tells us that the virus will go to susceptible areas,” he added.
District evidence
Kalaburgi deputy commissioner B Sharath was blunt in what was driving up numbers in his district: travellers from Bengaluru.
Meanwhile, at Dakshina Kannada, which has registered 3,657 new cases since July 14, Dr Rajendra K V, the deputy commissioner, explained that his district was testing nearly 2,000 suspected Covid-19 cases every day. Till July 14, the district had only 2,353 cases in total.
“Travellers are a source. We get at least one chartered international flight every day plus Vande Bharat flights, where less than 10% of passengers are infected. Asymptomatics are slipping through. People are coming into the district from other places, including from Bengaluru, because we have good medical infrastructure,” he said.
He cautioned, however, that travellers could not be solely blamed, as science still had not yet managed to crack all the secrets of the virus.
‘Track deaths’
“More than cases, we should look at deaths as a measure of what the shift in caseload implies,” Dr Babu said, adding that death rates had shot up in several districts.
“According to the reported data, Haveri is showing a very worrying seven-day moving average of fatalities. On July 11, it had four deaths; on July 18, it was nine and on July 25, it became 23,” he said.
Three other districts also showing high death rates as of the last 10 days are Koppal, Chikkmagaluru and Kolar.
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