Covid-19 cases reach peak in Dharwad district, plateau to continue for a week

From just nine Covid-19 cases on the first day of the year to a a whopping 1,155 on January 27, infections appear to have peaked in Dharwad district.

No other district in the Kittur-Karnataka region is recording such a huge number of fresh cases. The district had on Wednesday (January 26) reported a record 1,532 new cases.

Such a sharp rise in cases was never seen in the previous two waves, but hospitalisation rate (5 per cent) and deaths in the third wave have fortunately been very less.

Though the Omicron variant is said to be the reason for the rapid spread of the infection, the authorities concerned feel that the type of variant has lost importance now, as symptoms in most of the cases are mild.

The peak of the third wave in the district is considered to have begun around a week back when daily numbers reached around 1,000 – and now it is in the mid-peak.

‘At peak now’

According to Deputy Commissioner Nitesh Patil, the third wave is at its peak in the district this week, and it would be in the plateau-type with slight changes in the numbers for the next one week or 10 days.

The numbers are estimated to come down by the start of February, and it is expected to be negligible by February-end. Just like the rise, the decline of cases is also likely to be rapid, he noted.

The case positivity rate in the district is currently at 23 per cent, which is more than that of Bengaluru. "Cases have started coming down in Bengaluru, and we are one week behind Bengaluru," he said.

An average of 5,500 tests are being conducted in the district daily, and treatment protocol is the same irrespective of suspicion about the type of the Covid-19 variant. Based on some criteria, labs send some samples for genome sequencing in Bengaluru, which is a lengthy process, Patil added.

Only 208 cases were reported in the district in the whole month of December with three deaths. In January so far, the district has seen a record 13,579 cases, and five deaths, having 6,063 active cases, including 21 ICU cases.

‘Rising trend now’

State-level Covid Clinical Expert Committee member G B Sattur observed that the Covid numbers in the district may rise for at least one more week, and peak cannot be at present, though it can be considered as heading towards the peak. The numbers may be fluctuating, he noted.

"The Covid cases may come down after February first week. Of late, we are seeing a few comorbidity patients with less oxygen saturation, probably having a combination of Delta and Omicron variants," he said.

Mild symptoms

As most Omicron patients with very mild symptoms recover fast, such cases may go unidentified, and therefore, the previous mathematical models related to waves may not work out this time, Dr Sattur added.

The third wave’s peak may end by February first week, and the declining trend would begin from then on, he predicted.

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