Karnataka readying facilities for likely Covid-19 second wave

The state government is set to begin ramping up Covid treatment facilities to October levels, when Karnataka saw over 10,000 cases a day, following the technical committee’s advisory that a second wave of the disease is expected in January-February.

In its seven-page report submitted to the government on Monday, the Karnataka Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) recommended several measures, including restarting Covid Care Centres under public-private partnership model, to deal with the possible surge in cases.

Dr C N Manjunath, state nodal officer for Covid-19 testing and TAC member, told DH, “In USA, Europe and Australia or even in Delhi, the second wave typically happened 40-60 days after the first decline. Going by the natural trend, we predict Karnataka’s second wave in January or February.”

The report said the second wave can be spotted early by closely monitoring the seven-day average growth rate and reproduction number (R0) at the district and state levels. R0 is the expected number of cases directly generated by one case. An epidemic intelligence team shall support the state war room for early recognition of the second wave and alert the officials, it said.

Another TAC member and epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu told DH the intelligence team is yet to be formed.

A minimum of 1.25 lakh tests per day should continue till the end of February 2021, of which one lakh shall be RT-PCR by pooling five samples. Fortnightly testing of all teachers, pupils, and staff in educational institutions, anganwadi staff, and others by RT-PCR has also been suggested.

The report said facilities should be ready by the first week of January, “at an October 2020 level” in terms of beds, ICUs, ventilators, and ambulances both in government and private hospitals.

The report also said that graded reopening of schools for Class 12 and 10 in January can be considered after assessing the cases at the end of December. It said restrictions on mass gatherings should continue.

Health and Medical Education Minister Dr K Sudhakar said the government was ready for the challenge. “We have seen that in August-September, when the surge started, it was steady and slow. We have to resume all medical services to take care of all patients and at the same time should be in a position to switch over to Covid treatment depending on the requirements.”

Jawaid Akhtar, Additional Chief Secretary, Health, said the experience of last few months will also help. “Previously, we did not know how to turn a clinical facility into a Covid facility but now we know. We can switch from Covid to non-Covid, and vice versa at short notice. Plus, we will have time to prepare,” he added.

The state government, one week ago, removed the mandatory requirement for private hospitals to reserve 50% of their beds in general wards and high dependency units for government-referred Covid-19 patients. The decision was prompted by the drop in the number of infections in recent weeks.

“We have already told private hospitals in a circular a week ago that a five-day advance notice would be given if the Covid-19 situation worsens and if the government requires more beds,” added Akhtar.