Monsoon likely to arrive in Karnataka today, June 10

The southwest monsoon is likely to hit Karnataka on June 10, two days after the weather system arrived in Kerala.

Officials at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said this is not a significant delay as the monsoon was predicted to set in over Kerala by June 4 this year, with an error margin of 4 days.

The IMD predicts a 42 per cent probability for rainfall to be in the range of 92 to 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 83 cm calculated between 1971 and 2020 in the state. Bengaluru city is expected to see 11 cm of rainfall for the month of June, which is slightly above the normal range.

A Prasad, Scientist ‘D’ at IMD, Bengaluru, noted the slight delay in arrival of the monsoon was due to several factors.

“Westerly winds should be seen at 4.5 km above sea levels and their speed should be 15-20 knots, the persistence of which wasn't observed until June 6,” he said.

Moreover, persistent, sufficient clouding was not observed until June 6 or June 7 and the outgoing longwave radiation, which should be less than 200 watts/m2 continuously for two days, was observed only by June 7.

“Out of the 14 monitoring stations we have in Kerala, we need to observe at least 2.5 mm of rain continuously for two days in at least eight to nine stations,” said Prasad.

IMD officials believe that the effects of El Nino in the later part of the monsoon season will be compensated by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole this monsoon, as predicted by its models, indicating a normal rainfall across the state.