An assessment of the effects of climate change on Karnataka's forests has shown that even a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius in temperature will deliver a debilitating blow to the scrub and open forest areas of seven districts in both short term (2030s) and long term (2080s).
Experts have called for detailed studies to understand the various facets of the problem.
The study, which is part of Karnataka government's draft climate action plan, said the extremities caused by climate change will effect change in vegetation in Vijayapura, Raichur, Koppal, Ballari, Chitradurga, Kodagu and Hassan under both low-emission and high-emission scenarios.
"This means that the future climate at such locations will not be suitable for existing vegetation or forest type and biodiversity. The forest type change may be accompanied by forest dieback and mortality,” the study added.
Indu K Murthy, Principal Research Scientist, Adaptation and Risk Analysis, at the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, used the dynamic global vegetation model that takes into account vegetation dynamics and land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges to simulate the changes.
"Change in very dense and moderately dense forest is projected only for the Western Ghats district of Udupi in the short as well as long-term periods," the study said, adding that improved modelling was needed to assess districts with high forest cover.
Indu, who has worked with UN bodies, told DH that interventions were needed to prepare districts, especially farmers, by including crops that are resistant to climate change. She said even though some districts are projected to see a wetter future, it may not translate into better vegetation. “We can hope that the copious rains turn scrub land into forested land. But experience shows that such phenomena are more likely to cause floods. The weather extremes will have a major bearing on agriculture and agrarian economy,” she said, noting that a long-term study was needed to understand the impact of such changes.
The study suggested that forest and agriculture policies need to change at the earliest with measures adopted to promote biodiversity at every level. Especially social forestry is predominated by monoculture plantations, which are not only vulnerable to pests but also spell disaster for biodiversity.
“Allowing the market to drive such policies will lead to monocropping and monoculture. Instead, the rules related to social and agroforestry as well as agriculture have to adopt measures that proactively promote biodiversity. This can also prepare the farmers to face the future,” she said.
On August 14, DH had reported that climate change will lead to the Western Ghats losing 33% of biodiversity by 2050 along with degradation of forests.
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