Expert predicts sharp rise in state's COVID-19 deaths in two weeks

Even as the number of COVID-19 cases have come down from a peak of 515 days ago, the number of deaths is increasing. If the last seven days have been any indication, the state has a serious problem on its hands. One expert cautioned there will be a sharp increase in deaths within the next two weeks.

In the first 13 days of June, the number of total COVID-19 cases has jumped by a factor of 111.9% to 6,824 cases. As many as 27 deaths were registered (an increase of 55.5%) in the said period. Of which, 19 were reported in the last one week with Bengaluru alone accounting for 12.

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This is a number that will multiply by an as-of-yet unknown percentage in the next 15 days, explained Dr K S Satish, president, Karnataka Pulmonology Association, and a member of two official audit groups examining deaths in the state and in Bengaluru.

“One finding is clear, a person with untreated diabetes has a 10% chance of death if exposed to COVID-19. What the data also shows is that most of the people who have succumbed have sugar levels above 400,” Dr Satish said. He pointed out that India also happens to be the ‘diabetes capital’ of the World.

According to data from the state COVID-19 War Room, the death rate among people with diabetes or hypertension is 30.4%. The death rate for people with other comorbidities is 18.8%.

However, among the recent fatalities was a teenage girl, aged 17, with a neurological disorder, and a 28-year-old woman with SARI, indicating that there is no monopoly on age, and that comorbidities do not have to be limited to diabetes.

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Age factor

Dr Satish and other experts agree that as long as the death rate is less than 5%, the number of deaths will be within expectations. The state Covid-19 War Room says that the death rate is currently 2.4%. This per cent, however, is an average. By considering death rates according to age, an alarming picture emerges. Among people aged 40 to 50, the death rate was 7.4% at the start of June. For people in the age group of 50 to 60, it is currently 8.8% and even higher at 18.8% for people over the age of 60.

Meanwhile, BBMP Commissioner B H Anil Kumar acknowledged that the increase of infection rate across Bengaluru was due to the inordinate delay in communication of the test results.

“The test result of the patients is not communicated immediately. The symptomatic person until the arrival of the test result would have been roaming all around spreading the infection. If the communication of the test result happens immediately, perhaps it will be helpful in arresting the larger spread across the city by isolating the infection person in a quick possible time,” the commissioner clarified.

Evidently, the big surge in number in the past one week across Bengaluru is attributed to backlog cases. Health officials across the board also complained that many of the fatalities are unknown to the government until the last few hours of life.