Holiday season may delay Karnataka’s Covid-19 peak

Increased people’s movement and socialisation during the festive season is projected to add 34,700 active cases to Karnataka’s Covid-19 caseload. This could further delay the peaking of Karnataka’s Covid-19 outbreak, experts said.

These numbers will be above the normal caseload of 1.2 lakh new cases expected up to October 27, according to a mathematical modelling study.

The assessment comes even as other states and metropolises nationwide have “peaked” and are now showing a reduction in numbers. Contrastingly, Karnataka’s active case numbers have been increasing, despite many discharges.

“However, if people adhere to all social distancing regulations during the shopping season, it is likely that we will start to see the beginnings of the peak within three weeks,” said Subramanian Sivakumar of Pratian Technologies, which is using a math model to analyze Covid-19 data.

The government expressed caution on the matter. Minister for Health Dr K Sudhakar told DH that he does not “want to speculate about peak or second wave.”

‘Vaccine may break chain’

On the matter of when we can break the chain of infection, he said it will “only happen after a vaccine is developed. For a large country like India, herd immunity cannot be a strategic option. It can be achieved only through mass vaccination. Any other way may prove to be costly and is not at all feasible.”

It is expected that crowds will be smaller this festive season. Leela Shivakumar, ex-corporator of Chikpet, said already there is 20% less footfall in the market area when compared to last year. “There is no pickup in trade,” she said.

Gajendra Singh Rathore, senior centre director, Phoenix Marketcity Bengaluru, said malls are currently seeing 36% footfall compared to last year, but expects this to rise to 40-50% as the holidays present the first real opportunity for people to celebrate this year.

Sivakumar said the actions of Bengalureans will ultimately decide the question of statewide “peaking” as 45% of Karnataka’s daily cases are found in the city.

In districts

Sanjeev Mysore, convenor of Jeevan Raksha project, a public-private partnership analyzing Covid-19 trends, said increased socialization during the festival season is common in all districts.

Epidemiological analysis in other districts shows 15 districts have an upward moving growth rate. As per a 30-day moving growth rate (MGR) calculation by epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu, Chamarajanagar is the worst hit. It shows a 125% MGR increase. Next is Kodagu which shows 100% increase, followed by Chitradurga, Kolar and Bengaluru
Rural.

Ananya Vasudev, Kodagu’s disaster management officer, said the district had been seeing increased number of cases after the inflow of tourists since Unlock 2.0.