Interstate travellers may add to state’s Covid-19 woes

The state’s burden of COVID-19 from interstate travellers could increase to at least 436 cases within the next five days, by Friday. This is up from the 174 such cases currently registered in the state since May 14.

The projections were made using a formula employed by the state COVID war room to determine future cases, using a specifically calculated district-wise average compounded daily growth rate.

The largest projected increase will be in Mandya. Currently, the district has 57 interstate COVID cases. By Friday, that number could be 161, out of a total projected COVID caseload of 255 for the district for May 22.

When asked why Mandya was witnessing such high numbers of interstate cases, a state war room officer explained that many of the cases were people of Karnataka origin who had settled in Mumbai.

“Many people are trying to escape Maharashtra and are coming to Mandya where they have relatives,” the officer said.

The next highest increase will likely be in Hassan with 100 total interstate COVID cases. Currently, the district has 21 such cases. Other districts which could potentially see increases are Yadgir (up to 60 cases), Kalaburagi (up to 30 cases), Uttara Kannada (up to 41 cases). Interestingly, Bengaluru Urban will potentially not see any increase.

On Monday, the city witnessed its first two interstate COVID cases, when two unrelated 43-year-old men, who had come from Chennai and Vellore, tested positive for the disease.

In all, Monday’s new COVID milestone for Karnataka with 99 cases, includes 65 people who had returned to Karnataka from other states. According to data from the Health and Family Welfare department, the spike is pronounced from May 15, after a government inter-district travel authorized the free movement of people within Karnataka, contingent of travellers obtaining a permit from the Seva Sindhu website and being screened at various inter-district checkpoints.

However, the sharp upswing in cases has prompted a change, explained Dr M K Sudarshan, a senior member of the State Covid Task Force.

“The chief minister’s decision today (May 18) not to accept any more ‘migrants’ from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, could potentially curb the spike, but it will take a week for us to see the effects,” he said.

Deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi clarified that the move was done with the best interests of the state. “Although the Centre has asked for free movement of interstate travellers, they have also left the decision to allow such travellers to the states. Our decision is to block visitors from these four states until May 31,” he said.