Just 62 people in Karnataka infected 426 others with COVID-19: Report

A total of just 62 “root” COVID-19 positive patients have been responsible for infecting 426 others in the state. In simpler terms, this means that every single “root” COVID-19 positive patient infected 6.87 others.

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The data, which was released on Tuesday night by the State Covid War Room, offers other startling revelations.

Out of the 62 patients, the vast majority (29) are independently discovered cases, identified as being COVID-19 patients only because they showed symptoms of Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) or Influenza-Like Illness (ILI). These people ended up infecting 281 others before they were identified as having the disease.

The next highest number of root patients including 18 domestic travellers, primarily Tablighi Jamaat travellers. “Fifteen of the 18 patients have a travel history to Delhi and have accounted for 100 cases,” the report states, adding that the “other three have travelled to other places in India and account for 11 cases.”

The report makes special mention of Patient 128, a 20-year-old man from Belgavi who attended the Tablighi Jamaat congregation from March 13 to 18, and single-handedly ended up infecting 36 people in the country, 15 of them in Karnataka. The overall insight records the younger the Tablighi attendee and male, the more likely he was to spread the disease.

The last group of “root” patients is made up of 15 international travellers, who infected 34 others.

The report states that “International travellers do not have higher spread rates and spread of infection is well controlled,” although it cautions that the risks are highest for immediate family members.

As of Tuesday, the COVID-19 outbreak in Karnataka had seen a primary contact list of 1,320 people being generated, plus a secondary contact list of 4,778 people.

How the spread happens

The COVID-19 spread operates along two nodes beyond the “root” patient. At level one of the spread, people most likely to turn positive are those who come into direct contact with the “root patient.” These are immediate family members. There are also those who become carriers and spread the virus to other people who may subsequently turn positive.

DH Infographic: Ramu Mastiah

At level two, the infection spreads among those who have not directly come in contact with the root patient. Instead, they are infected through level one contacts. People at this level are also more likely to catch the infection from public places.

A typical “level two” case is Patient 653, who was disclosed to the public on Tuesday. Employed as a housekeeper at a hotel, he contracted the disease from Patient 420 (a 28-year-old woman who is a resident of Vasanth Nagar) who was herself infected by Patient 208 (a 32-year-old man and resident of Pulikeshi Nagar).

“Patient Zero” of this cluster is Patient 196, a 42-year-old resident of Hoshalli, who was first identified with the disease after he developed Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) in early April.