Karnataka's Covid recovery rate surpasses speed of infection

Record numbers of people are recovering from their bout with the novel coronavirus as the state achieves new milestones in the number of case discharges.

On Friday, for example, Karnataka set a record in the number of discharges in a single day (71,092). All together, 2.37 lakh people have been discharged since January 27, which has slashed the active caseload from a peak of 3.62 lakh on January 24 to 2.51 lakh cases as of Sunday afternoon.

Officially, as per the State Covid-19 War Room, Karnataka’s recovery rate is 150%. But not all districts are faring well. A handful have a low recovery rate which suggests the outbreak is still raging in these places with the number of new patients outstripping those being discharged.

In the last one week, Bagalkot, Chamarajanagar and Yadgir had a recovery rate of less than 58%. At the other end of the spectrum, 15 districts (including Bengaluru Urban, Ramanagara, Hassan, Tumakuru and Mysuru) had a recovery rate of over 150%. Bengaluru Urban’s was 191%.

Dr Pradeep Badanur, head of Nimhans’ Department of Epidemiology and a member of the state’s technical Advisory Committee (TAC), said that the recovery rate is an indicator of clinical management. “In the current Omicron wave, the recovery rate has been high because the variant has not caused a spate of serious hospitalisations,” he said.

D Randeep, Health Commissioner, said the state’s focus on targeted testing was continuing to yield cases as evinced by an average daily test positivity rate of over 22%. “At the same time, the average duration of hospitalisation is just 2-3 days in this current wave,” he said.

Dr Badanur added that the higher recovery rate of Bengaluru Urban and surrounding districts is because these places have witnessed a peak in cases. In other districts, however, case increases began late and so a high number of cases continue to be found.

In Yadgir, where the recovery rate was a comparatively tepid 51.26%, District Health Officer (DHO) Dr Indumathi K Patil confirmed that the district started recording a higher number of cases later than other districts.

“Even up to the middle of this month, the district was recording less than 20 cases per day. Now, it has started to increase. Yadgir is the last to see a decline in cases — this was the pattern in the second wave as well,” Dr Indumathi said, explaining this is the result of a floating population and a large quantity of interstate travel to and from the neighbouring Telangana.

As per the state Covid War Room, the district recorded 870 cases in the last seven days and discharged 446 people over the same period. “As per official projections, our peak will only happen in the second week of February,” Dr Indumathi said. “However, hospitalisation is only 1%,” she added.

Another district with a low recovery rate is Chamarajanagar, with 57.9%. DHO Dr K M Visweshwaraya said that only recently has the district’s daily caseload started to rise from 80 to over 600 cases.

“Our test positivity rate is 38%, showing that cases are still there. However, our hospitalisation is about 5%. Most of our fatalities are people who are either only partly vaccinated or have comorbidities,” he said.

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