Monsoon likely to arrive in Karnataka on June 10

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to declare the advancing of southwest monsoons in Karnataka on June 10, two days after monsoon's onset was declared in Kerala.

IMD predicts a 42 per cent probability for rainfall to be in the range of 92 to 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 83 cm calculated between 1971 to 2020 in the state. Bengaluru city is expected to see rainfall slightly above the normal range of 11 cm for the month of June.

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Officials at the IMD noted that this was not a significant delay, as the southwest monsoon was predicted to set in over Kerala by June 4 this year, with an error margin of 4 days.

However, A Prasad, Scientist ‘D’ at IMD, Bengaluru, noted that the slight delay in the monsoons was due to the delay of several factors that are usually observed in the last week of May.

“Westerly winds should be seen at 4.5 km above sea levels and their speed should be 15-20 knots, the persistence of which wasn't observed until June 6,” he said.

Moreover, persistent sufficient clouding was not observed until June 6 or 7 and the outgoing longwave radiation, that should be less than 200 watts/m² continuously for two days, was observed only by June 7.

“Out of the 14 monitoring stations we have in Kerala, we need to observe at least 2.5 mm of rain continuously for two days in at least eight to nine stations,” said Prasad.

Monsoons were declared in Kerala on June 8 after all the criteria were established in full only by June 7.

IMD officials believe that the effects of El Nino in the later part of the monsoon season will be compensated by a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) this monsoon, as predicted by IMD models, indicating a normal rainfall across the state.