Not to worry, but Karnataka should watch Covid-19 numbers

Karnataka's daily Covid-19 caseload has seen a slight spike for the last few days, raising concerns of a further surge in numbers that have remained in triple digits for a while now.

But officials in the government said more data is needed to comment on the Covid numbers situation.

According to official data, there has been a marked slowdown in the decline of weekly case numbers. Between December 20 and December 27, seven-day case numbers fell by a steep 18.2%. However, since then, the weekly case decline has slowed to just 2.49%.

From Tuesday, daily numbers have increased from a low of 600 cases statewide to 970 on Friday. On Saturday, 899 new cases were revealed.

Omprakash Patil, Director of the Department of Health and Family Welfare, said a few more days are required to see if the increase is steady. “At the moment, it is still too early to tell. The increase has been small. Data from an additional three to four days to come will give us a better idea,” he said.

In November 2020, the Karnataka Covid-19 Technical Committee had predicted a surge in cases in January or February.

First surge

During the first surge, which materialised on June 21, a similar pattern was seen.

At that time, Covid-19 numbers also showed a substantial decline before spiralling upwards. Between May 31 and June 13, the seven-day total showed a 29.6% decline before numbers shot up by 16% and a surge hit the state from June 21.

The presence of the new UK variant complicates matters, although noted epidemiologist Dr Gridhar Babu, who predicted the first surge, said there is little evidence to suggest the UK strain was circulating in strength.

“We would see a substantial increase in the number of cases," Dr Babu said. "There is, of course, a chance that the new variant of the virus is already spreading in communities, considering that travellers were flying in from the United Kingdom since September."

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But he added that it is "difficult to see what headway the virus would make in densely populated areas, especially in Bengaluru, where the outbreak has already plateaued”.

Dr V Ravi, nodal officer for genetic confirmation for SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka, said he does not believe the new numbers indicate the onset of the second wave.

“Normally, a second wave starts four months after the end of the first wave. We have not yet seen that gap of time,” said Dr Ravi, who is also a Covid Technical Committee member.

He added that the new numbers could not be compared with Kerala, which has been battling a surge.

“Kerala saw a surge after Onam, and the numbers have never come down. This is not the case with Karnataka,” Ravi said.