Study finds under-reporting of Covid-19 cases, deaths in Karnataka

The problem of under-reporting of cases and deaths is acute in Bengaluru's 597 slum areas

Research by scientists at the University of Michigan and Karnataka suggests that there is under-reporting of Covid-19 deaths and cases in Karnataka and across India.

As per their study, titled 'Estimating Covid-19 related mortality in India: An epidemiological challenge with insufficient data,' the researchers, including noted epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu, suggests that the under-reporting factor is between 10 to 20 per case of infection and between two and five per death reported in the second wave.

The scientists said that using epidemiological models and seroprevalence surveys allowed them to determine the under-reporting factor, based on data from the first wave in India.

Dr Bhramar Mukherjee, Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan, told DH that anecdotal and media reports had corroborated their model estimates.

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The researchers said in the study: “Recently, an excess death calculation based on comparing death certificates issued in the state of Gujarat showed that while the state reported 4,218 Covid-19 deaths from March 1 to May 10, 2021, an estimated 61,000 excess deaths remained uncounted, indicating an under-reporting factor of nearly 15.”

For the study, which is under peer review, the authors considered Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Gujarat. Prof Bhramar said Bengaluru may have suffered over 10,000 deaths just from January to July 2020.

Officially, up to the end of July, the city had only 1,029 deaths. Sanjeev Mysore, convenor of the Jeevan Raksha data analysis group, said under-reporting is common.

“As per the World Health Organization (WHO), the global actual Covid-19 death is 2-3 times higher than the disclosed number. India is no exception,” he said.

He said auditing Covid-19 deaths is particularly tricky in India.

“In the United States, the chances of under-reporting deaths is relatively low because of the stringent control the insurance industry has laid down to protect their interests. Deaths are audited as matter of fact because of insurance. In India, less than 10% of the people are insured. There is no compelling reason for the state administration to disclose the accurate number of deaths and invite wrath from the general public, media, and moreover from the political establishment,” he said.

Acute in Bengaluru slums

The problem of under-reporting of cases and deaths is especially acute in the city’s 597 slum areas, said Aysha Abdullah of the United Foundation, an NGO which works in slum areas.

“There is a general stigma within slum dwellers about testing and going to hospitals. Many are dying without ever being tested,” she said.