West Asia conflict | Who is likely to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran's next supreme leader?

The 36-year rule of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came to an end on Saturday as the 86-year-old leader was killed in air strikes by Israel and the US that pulverised his central Tehran compound.

Both Iranian state media and US President Donald Trump have confirmed the news of Khamenei's death.

"Khamenei, one ⁠of ‌the most evil ‌people ⁠in History, is ‌dead," Trump ‌said ‌on ‌Truth Social, adding “he was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do."

After Khamenei's death, an environment of uncertainty has surrounded the Shia majority country with speculation on who will succeed the supreme leader. Khamenei, however, had prepared for this moment in advance and had suggested three names that could lead the nation after his death.

Khamenei's three picks

According to a News York Times report, in June, during the 12-day war with Israel, when Khamenei was in hiding, he named three candidates who could be appointed swiftly to succeed him. The supreme leader must be a senior Shia cleric and scholar appointed by a committee of 88 clerics known as the Assembly of Experts.

The three candidates Khamenei said he preferred for the role of supreme leader, based on interviews with six senior Iranian officials and two clerics who did not want to be identified discussing sensitive information, are the head of the judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i; Khamenei’s chief of staff, Ali Asghar Hejazi; and Hassan Khomeini, a moderate cleric from the reformist political faction who is a grandson of Khomeini.

Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, who has been a powerful figure in the shadows, is favoured by some factions, but Khamenei told followers that he did not want the post of supreme leader to be hereditary. Additionally, as per a CNN report, father-to-son succession is frowned upon in the Shiite Muslim clerical establishment.

A CNN report has named five potential successors of Khamenei. Let's take a look at them:

Mojtaba Khamenei

Mojtaba (56) is the second son of Khamenei and is known to have strong links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the most powerful military body in the country, as well as its Basij volunteer paramilitary force.

However, not being a high-ranking cleric and having no official role in the regime are being hurdles in Mojtaba's way.

Alireza Arafi

Not as popular as Mojtaba, Arafi is an established cleric with a track record in government institutions who was also a confidant of Khamenei.

The 67-year-old currently serves as deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and has been a member of the powerful Guardian Council, which vets election candidates and laws passed by parliament. He also heads Iran’s seminary system.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri

A hardline cleric in his early 60s and a member of the Assembly of Experts, Mirbagheri represents the most conservative wing of the clerical establishment.

Mirbagheri recently made headlines for reportedly justifying the high death toll in Israel’s war in Gaza by saying that the death of even half the world’s population is “worth it” if it achieves closeness to God.

Hassan Khomeini

Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, has the most religious and revolutionary legitimacy in the race to become the supreme leader.

Known to be less hardline than many of his peers, Khomeini is in his early 50s and serves as the custodian of the Khomeini mausoleum. However, he hasn’t held public office and appears to have little influence with the country’s security apparatus or ruling elite.

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

A senior cleric closely linked to the institutions that manage succession, Bushehri serves as first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts.

In his late 60s, he is said to have been close to Khamenei but has a low profile domestically and isn’t known to have strong ties to the IRGC.