Ceasefire with Iran under political compulsions: Former NSA John Bolton

However, Bolton added that there was not enough information on which to base such confident conclusions.

Washington: Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has cautioned that the US-Israel conflict with Iran could deepen further if the temporary ceasefire, reached “under political compulsions” by President Donald Trump, does not hold through.

In an interview with PTI Videos, Bolton said Trump pushed for a ceasefire because of the political implications of rising gas prices in the US, the plunge in his popularity among the masses, and because an extended conflict with Iran could result in a severe setback for the US.

“Well, I think a deeper, more lasting conflict is entirely possible. The real issue is Trump. He's been so concerned about the price at the pump of gasoline, the political implications for him. His popularity has gone down noticeably… He may not care about all these broader considerations,” Bolton said.

“He (Trump) looks out after himself and that may be what dominates his thinking. And if so, I think that could result in a severe setback for the United States,” Bolton said to a question on a possible failure of the negotiations for a permanent end to the Iran war.

Bolton served as the National Security Advisor to Trump during his first term. He had to resign following differences with the US president.

A long advocate of a regime change in Iran, Bolton said if Tehran were to be left in a dominant position with control over the Strait of Hormuz, it would be a setback for the US.

“If Iran is now to be left in a dominant position, where it decides whether oil from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait or Qatar or the other Gulf countries can exit by ship through the Strait of Hormuz, it will make Iran the major player in the entire Gulf region,” he said.

“That's something the US has rejected for well over 50 years. That there is no one country, whether it is an Arab country, whether it is Iran, whether it's a foreign government, that can be left in control of oil from the Gulf. It'd be stunning if the president has abandoned that position,” he said.

“And if he hasn't, then Iran is in for some bad news. So, I think the situation remains fluid. A lot depends on Trump. If Trump has turned away from this issue too quickly, it will be a significant strategic defeat for the United States,” Bolton said.

However, he added that there was not enough information on which to base such confident conclusions.

On Pakistan’s involvement in brokering the ceasefire, Bolton pointed out that Turkey and Egypt also played a role in the back-channel negotiations.

“I think Trump's affinity for General (Asim) Munir is pretty pretty clear. And I think he was trying to please him. This is part of the trouble Trump has with international affairs. He thinks if he has a good relationship with somebody that he can trust them, and that person will do the right thing,” Bolton said.

The former NSA said he could also see China's hand in the negotiations.

“It may well be actually that China contributed by putting pressure on Iran to open the Strait. I hope that's true because they should have done that,” Bolton said, adding that it simply showed how complicated the situation was.

Bolton also said he believed that the US did enormous damage to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the military industrial complex inside, to the regime’s leadership and its command and control.

“I think these setbacks are very serious. The problem is what's left of the regime is still in place. And while it's badly wounded, it will now try to recreate itself. It will take time, but once oil revenues begin to flow, it could go very quickly,” he said.

The Iranians seem to think that the US will lift all sanctions, which would allow them to compete with the Arabian nations, Bolton said.

“That'll come to a lot of people's surprise because once the sanctions go, it will definitely increase Iran's capability to rebuild its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes,” he said.