How Trump's revenge tour against Republicans could cost the party in November

Sixteen months into his second presidency, Donald Trump may be as unpopular as he's ever been among the American electorate – but his grip on his core base of MAGA voters remains unshaken.

That power was on full display over the last two weeks, as Trump ousted a string of fellow Republicans he considered apostates for not showing him enough personal fealty.

The president's revenge tour ⁠continued on Tuesday, when a hand-picked loyalist defeated US Representative Thomas Massie, a frequent critic, in a Kentucky nominating contest.

But Trump's success in purging the party of dissenters could also hurt its chances of retaining ⁠control of Congress in November's midterm elections, some Republican strategists said.

Trump's actions appear aimed at mobilizing his most diehard supporters, rather than reaching out to ‌independent or moderate Republican voters who will likely play a determinative role ​in highly competitive races. And the Republican candidates in those contests may feel pressure to tether themselves even more closely to Trump to avoid becoming the latest targets of his ire – even though it may cost them voters outside the Make America Great Again base.

"Anytime the party in power in the midterm elections faces headwinds, the president should be looking to grow his coalition," said Jeff Grappone, a former adviser to several Republican senators.

With the Iran war driving energy costs higher, Trump's approval rating was at 35% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday, reflecting growing concern about inflation and the cost of living.

'ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION'

Trump's spring retribution ​campaign notched its first victory on May 5, when five Indiana ⁠state senators who had bucked his demand to redraw the state's congressional map lost to Trump-endorsed challengers. On Saturday, Republican U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy – whose sin was voting to convict Trump at his 2021 impeachment trial over the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol – finished far behind a Trump-backed candidate.

And on Tuesday, Massie, who had cast several votes that angered Trump, was defeated. The same day, Trump endorsed Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the state's US Senate race over the incumbent, John Cornyn, rejecting months of entreaties from Senate Republicans worried that the scandal-ridden ⁠Paxton could cost them a reliably Republican ‌seat in November.

Even if Paxton ultimately prevails in the fall, Republicans will likely be forced to spend more money on that race, draining resources from competitive Senate races in states such as North Carolina and Georgia, said Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist in South Carolina.

Chuck Coughlin, a Phoenix-based strategist who left ‌the Republican Party in 2017 and now identifies as an independent, described Trump's latest purges as a "purification exercise" that could alienate the smaller but significant minority of Republican voters who backed Cornyn, Massie and Cassidy.

"It's addition by subtraction," Coughlin said. "He's shrinking the party."

Trump dismissed ⁠concerns that he might be harming his party's chances in November by going after incumbent Republicans.

"They'll be alright with it," he told reporters on Wednesday, referring to Republican leaders. "They want to win. I know how to win - I think I've proven that, haven't I?"

VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS IN BIND

Trump's refusal ‌to brook any disloyalty could make it more difficult for Republicans in vulnerable seats to oppose him on politically divisive votes, such as funding for the president's ballroom ‌or forcing an end to the Iran war.

Rachel Blum, a political science professor at the University of Oklahoma, said the party in control has traditionally given members ‌of Congress room to break with it in the run-up to the midterm election, especially when the president is unpopular.

"That's exactly the conditions we have right now, but you aren't ‌seeing that kind of freedom or leeway being given to members," she said. A person familiar with Republican strategy pushed back against that narrative,saying Trump has largely targeted Republicans in very safe districts – like Massie and Cassidy – while allowing some members in competitive districts to show bipartisanship or even break with the president on certain issues.

Trump on Friday will campaign with Republican U.S. Representative Mike Lawler, whose New York district is widely seen as one of Democrats' most ⁠viable pickup opportunities in November.

Lawler has ⁠broken with Trump at times, including siding with Democrats on legislation protecting Haitian immigrants from deportation. But Trump has also shown a willingness to go after Republicans in more competitive races. In remarks to reporters on Wednesday, he criticized US Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican from Pennsylvania whom Democrats have targeted in the midterms and who is one of only three Republican House members to vote to end the Iran war.

"I don't know what's with him," Trump said. "He likes voting against Trump. You know what happens with that … doesn't work out well."

REFERENDUM ON TRUMP

Trump's successful expulsions may also endanger his agenda in Washington, where Republicans' razor-thin congressional majorities mean they can only afford to lose a handful of votes.

Less than 72 hours after losing his primary, Cassidy abruptly switched sides and backed a Democratic measure to force Trump to end the war or seek congressional authorization, helping to push it through the Senate after seven previous failed attempts.

"Trump is certainly in command of his own party, but ​he's complicated his governing position on Capitol Hill," Grappone said. "We now have Republican senators that he's opposed or torpedoed who have nothing left to lose."

Brian Seitchik, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, said the ​midterms will largely be a referendum on Trump's record no matter what, making ​it difficult for Republicans to distance themselves from him even if they were inclined to try.

"As a general rule, the parties swim and drown together," he said.

But, he noted, Trump has a track record of upending political assumptions.

"It's conventional wisdom to say if ​you're not with Trump, then you lose the primary, and if you're with Trump, you lose the general election," Seitchik said. "That's the conventional wisdom of the day, but Trump again continues to defy gravity."