Will Namibia's liberation party SWAPO be the next to fall in Africa?

Johannesburg: Voters in southern Africa this year have delivered blow after blow to parties that helped free their countries from colonialism. And on Wednesday, one of those parties, the South West Africa People's Organization, or SWAPO, in Namibia is expected to face its toughest electoral test ever.

High unemployment, government corruption, a housing crisis and poor social conditions have all contributed to the unpopularity of SWAPO, which has governed the country since it gained independence in 1990.

In May, the African National Congress, the party that led the defeat of apartheid in South Africa, lost its absolute majority in Parliament for the first time since democracy took hold in that country 30 years ago. The party was forced to form a governing coalition with rivals.

In neighboring Botswana, the Botswana Democratic Party, which had governed since the country became independent 58 years ago, suffered a stunning setback in last month's national election: It lost the presidency, going from being the largest party in Parliament to the smallest.

And while Frelimo, the party that has governed Mozambique since its independence in 1975, was declared the winner of its election in October, there are widespread allegations that it manipulated the vote to win. As a result, weeks of protests across the country have led to dozens of deaths.

These setbacks could spell trouble for SWAPO, though the party may well maintain its electoral dominance.

Youths are becoming a rising electoral force.

Africa has the youngest population of any continent, and as these young people become voters, analysts say they are disrupting politics as usual.

"The euphoria of liberation movements is rapidly disappearing among the Gen Z generation," said Oscar Van Heerden, a member of the African National Congress and political analyst in Johannesburg. "They simply are not interested in talking about former glories and former oppressions. Their reality today is that they can't find jobs."

Former liberation movements must rely on aging, mostly rural supporters, who lived through the freedom struggle and have more loyalty to them.

In Namibia, more than 40 per cent of the 1.4 million registered voters are 35 or younger. In order to woo the youth vote, SWAPO has taken to hiring popular South African pop artists to perform at their rallies. The party's presidential candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, also handpicked a 22-year-old to be among the candidates for Parliament.

Even though youth voters are strong in numbers, their electoral effect is not guaranteed.

"Young people are generally less likely than their elders to vote," said Rosevitha Ndumbu, a researcher at the Institute for Public Policy Research in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia. "Although young people may register to vote, registration and actual voting are two different processes."

Economic conditions are at a breaking point.

There comes a time, political analysts in the region say, when the nostalgia of conquering colonizers gives way to the reality that some people are unable to feed themselves.

"The citizens for the most part were in what we call a honeymoon," said Ndumba Kamwanyah, a lecturer in public policy at the University of Namibia. "But there is that threshold of 30 years when people realize that, 'No, my situation did not change. I'm still the same just like how I was before independence.'"

Namibia faces a severe housing shortage, with a backlog of 300,000 units. A third of the country was unemployed, according to the most recent labor survey from 2018. Although updated numbers were scheduled to be released this year, they have been delayed until 2025, raising suspicion that the government is doing so to avoid bad press before the election. (Namibia's statistics agency has denied the allegation.)

Many Namibians are also dismayed over what they feel is the government's failure to make land ownership affordable to most of the population. Most land is in the hands of wealthy and politically connected elites.

Could SWAPO buck the trend?

Kamwanyah said there are a few specifics in this race that could give SWAPO an edge.

For one, there are 14 opposition candidates running for president, and they could split the vote, clearing the way for SWAPO to win.

Also, the main opposition candidate, Panduleni Itula, was still a SWAPO member when he ran as an independent candidate in the last election five years ago and won about 30 per cent of the vote. But Kamwanyah said a lot of those voters might have been casting a protest ballot against Hage Geingob, the former president who died this year. With Itula having left SWAPO to form his own party, the Independent Patriots for Change, those voters may return to SWAPO, Kamwanyah said.

Finally, SWAPO has been hosting huge rallies in rural areas in the northern part of the country, which is its stronghold, suggesting that it could still have a very strong base of support.

Here's what else to know about the race.

The outcome will be significant no matter what.

Namibians will either elect a female president for the first time (Nandi-Ndaitwah is the first woman to lead the ticket for SWAPO) or a member of an opposing party for the first time.

The election is expected to be a two-horse race between Nandi-Ndaitwah, 72, who has been in government since independence and is currently vice president, and Itula, 67, who fell out with SWAPO after the faction he supported lost an internal leadership election in 2017.

Namibians vote directly for the presidential candidate they prefer. If no one gets more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, then the top two candidates go to a runoff -- something that has never happened.

The results are expected to be announced within five days.