Geopolitical faultlines

Changing realities

The triangular equations involving the United States, Russia and China is of perennial significance to India’s strategic calculus.While US-China ties are moving on to a rising curve, Washington’s successful reset with Russia is entering a period of uncertainty.

From the Indian viewpoint, close attention will be paid to how Washington negotiates the China challenge. As the prominent Australian scholar Hugh White wrote, “If 2009 was the year it became inescapably clear that China’s economic rise was powering an equally significant rise in its strategic and political weight, then 2010 was the year it became inescapably clear that China is using its weight to test the US-led order in Asia.”

By the second half of 2010, Washington began marshalling old allies and friends, which was apparent in the extensive tours undertaken by President Barack Obama and secretary of state Hillary Clinton through the length and breadth of Asia. However, as 2011 dawns, US seems more inclined to tap into China’s economic growth and to invite Beijing to exercise more power and influence abroad. The four-decade old Sino-American positive-sum game is on.

The Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi will pay a four-day visit to Washington in the first week. In the next week, secretary of defence Robert Gates will undertake a five-day visit to China. President Hu Jintao is arriving in Washington on a state visit on January 19. The ‘Washington Post’ estimated that “there is a sudden switch in tone from the commerce department to the National Security Council… (US) officials are praising China, referring to it again as a responsible partner.” The US about-face is remarkable and US officials are giving a positive note to China’s cooperation on the range of issues — trade, military ties, global security, climate change, etc.

The Pentagon gave visiting deputy chief of the general staff of the PLA Gen Ma Xiaotian and his entourage in December the same briefings on the US nuclear, ballistic missile and space postures “that we gave our closest allies”, according to the US undersecretary of defence Michele Flournoy. Clearly, US is making a big choice right at the outset of 2011, implicitly acknowledging that China is now too strong to be contained within a regional order of uncontested American supremacy in the Asia-Pacific. It is a natural choice too — in terms of the US’ vital national interests, especially its ailing economy, which is threatening the Barack Obama presidency.

In comparison, US-Russia ties, which were on the upswing through most of 2010, ended on a sour note. The exchange of hot words last week between Moscow and Washington over the case against the erstwhile ‘oligarch’ and head of the Russian oil giant Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkhovsky, goes beyond how jurisprudence works in Russia. The acrimony touches core issues of the US’ triumphalist narrative on post-Soviet Russia.

Start treaty

Why this abrupt dip? Hardly a fortnight back, Obama administration successfully got the ratification for the Start treaty from the outgoing Senate. But herein lies the rub. What next? The Start is the crowning glory of the reset, but it essentially means the Cold-War era verification mechanisms have been renewed.

Beyond that, its impact on global disarmament is limited and indeed, the relevance of the traditional arms control regime itself is increasingly questionable as aspiring nuclear states have appeared and China forms no part of the US-Russia negotiations — and is reluctant to be a part. As Washington and Moscow move toward the next step, namely, tactical nuclear weapons (where Russia enjoys vast superiority) or on missile defence and Russia’s accession to the WTO difficulties crop up. Obama will find it tough to push through an unfriendly House and a less-friendly Senate. His domestic political priority lies in bipartisan reconciliation.

In sum, the trajectory of Sino-American ties and US-Russia reset will impact regional security on several templates. Plainly put, Russia and China are increasingly coordinating their regional policies and that unnerves the US. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is slouching toward Afghanistan and 2011 may well witness India and Pakistan becoming full-fledged SCO members.

Appearance of any form of ‘Asian identity’ on the geopolitical chessboard undermines the US’ regional strategy, especially the projection of Nato as a global security organisation. Washington hopes to accentuate Sino-Russian contradictions.

Indeed, Indian strategic analysts miscalculated that 2011 promised to be the year US drew red lines on the sand for China. The need for India to ‘de-hyphenate’ its relationship with the US and with China is at once obvious. Also, as EU proposal to lift arms embargo on China shows, western thrust is to engage China rather than isolate or precipitate friction. It’s the economy, Stupid! We should factor in that the US and China share common interests over Pakistan’s stability and it is conceivable that Obama may reach out to China as a moderating influence on Pakistan.

A rethink in Russian policies toward Iran and Afghanistan is also likely, as the US drawdown commences. A competitive regional environment may ensue. Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s visit to Moscow in January acquires significance. Russia disfavours Taliban’s accommodation and it seeks a ‘neutral’ Afghanistan free of foreign military presence. Moscow will likely offer to Karzai that he should work with Russia and like-minded countries, which have stakes in durable peace and stability in Afghanistan. Needless to say, Russia is most likely to regenerate its strategic understanding with Iran.