Ice-free Arctic is no more illusion

Almost every Arctic coastal nation has created a plan for a military presence in the region.

Last month, the spectacle of Greenpeace activists scaling the Russian Prirazlomnaya oil-drilling platform drew international attention to the Arctic as an arena for political competition. This dramatic act coincided with a report by the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado at Boulder that the Arctic sea ice cover had melted to its smallest extent since satellite records began in 1979 – even with a few more weeks remaining in the melt season. Some scientists expect to see an ice-free summer by 2030.

The previous record was set in September 2007, which was just after Russian scientists completed the first manned descent under the geographic North Pole and planted a Russian flag on the Arctic sea floor. Other Arctic countries decried the Russian move while ratcheting up their own rhetoric to stake their claim to the increasingly accessible Arctic.
Why this dash to the North Pole? An ice-free Arctic holds the promise of undiscovered oil and gas deposits and of shipping lanes that could cut the travel distance between Rotterdam and Yokohama by about 4,450 miles. Unfortunately the legal framework in place to facilitate international cooperation is weak, and it is being further undermined by the unilateral actions of Arctic nations seeking to enforce their claims to a slice of the territory.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea allows countries to extend their territory beyond 200 nautical miles along a “natural extension” of their continental shelf. The five countries with Arctic coastlines – Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway and Denmark (via Greenland) – have 10 years from the date they ratify the Law of the Sea to submit their claims. Russia ratified the convention in 1997; the United States has signed but not yet ratified.

Extended territory

The Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf will determine the validity of the claims for extended territory, but the timeline for this mechanism is vague. Russia’s first claim was to the Mendeleev and Lomonosov Ridges, which extend across the Arctic, back in 2001, but the commission returned the submission and asked for more evidence.
Russia is not the only country to cast its eyes north. Denmark offered scientific data for its own claim to Arctic territory that includes the North Pole; Norway’s Statoil announced plans to drill nine wells in the Barents Sea in 2013.

Even countries without Arctic territorial claims are flexing their muscles. The Chinese icebreaker Xuelong reached Iceland last month, becoming the first Chinese vessel to cross the Arctic Ocean. Both China and the European Union are seeking permanent observer status on the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum that includes the five Arctic coastal countries plus Finland, Iceland and Sweden.

Activity in the fragile region has increased more in the last decade than anyone could have predicted. The Arctic Council has done little to mitigate the problem and has only agreed on one binding treaty on cooperation for search and rescue.

Meanwhile, almost every Arctic coastal nation has created a plan for a military presence in the region. Russia’s “Arctic 2020” plan includes $44 billion for projects ranging from oil and gas development to deploying a military force in the Arctic. Canada’s “Northern Strategy” includes $2.92 billion for all-terrain vehicles and $680 million for a new icebreaker.

In 2009, Norway became the first of the five littoral states to have a base north of the Arctic Circle, and it has already led several NATO training exercises in the region. Even Denmark has plans for an Arctic Military Command to be headquartered in Nuuk, Greenland. Although the United States has bases in the Alaskan Arctic, there are no plans so far for a separate Arctic command.

There are some grounds for optimism that the race to the North Pole can be steered away from military confrontation. In 2010, Russia and Norway settled their disputed maritime boundary in the Barents Sea and Arctic Ocean by splitting the territory equally. The agreement allowed for offshore licensing in the previously disputed zone, and energy groups are beginning to cooperate there – including a recently announced joint venture between Rosneft and Statoil.

Russia has been the most active of the Arctic states in forging ahead with Arctic development, but it has faced setbacks and delays because of the harsh conditions and environmental concerns. The global shale gas revolution that began in the United States continues to push down the price of natural gas, and that has already prompted Gazprom and its partners to indefinitely postpone plans to develop the giant Shtokman gas field.

It will be some time before the Arctic becomes the next shipping superhighway or a global oil and gas hub. It is incumbent on Arctic nations to use the time to re-evaluate and strengthen the legal framework for Arctic governance before the race to the North Pole gets really hot.