Press Esc to close
Saturday 01 October 2016
News updated at 2:07 PM IST
Weather
Max: 29.7°C
Min : 20.5°C
In Bengaluru
Generally cloudy
Breaking News

World populations to stop growing in 2050?

London, Apr 5, 2013, (PTI)

The number of people living on the Earth will stabilise around the middle of the century, scientists have predicted.

The findings, obtained with a model used by physicists, coincide with the United Nations's downward forecasts, Spain based Scientific Information and News Service (SINC) reported.

According to UN estimates, the world population in 2100 will be within a range between 15.8 billion people according to the highest estimates - high fertility variant - and 6.2 billion according to the lowest - low fertility variant - a figure that stands below the current 7 billion.

A mathematical model developed by a team from the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and the CEU-San Pablo University, both from Spain, seems to confirm the lower estimate, in addition to a standstill and even a slight drop in the number of people on Earth by the mid-21st century.

The population prospects between 1950 and 2100 provided by the UN were used to conduct the study published in the journal 'Simulation'.

"This is a model that describes the evolution of a two-level system in which there is a probability of passing from one level to another," said Felix F Munoz, UAM researcher and co-author of the project.

The team considered Earth as a closed and finite system where the migration of people within the system has no impact and where the fundamental principle of the conservation of mass and energy is fulfilled.

"Within this general principle, the variables that limit the upper and lower zone of the system's two levels are the birth and mortality rates," Munoz said.

"We started with a general situation where both the birth rate and mortality rate were high, with slow growth favouring the former," he added.

"But the mortality rate fell sharply in the second half of the 20th century as a result of advances in healthcare and increased life expectancy and it seemed that the population would grow a lot.

However, the past three decades have also seen a steep drop-off in the number of children being born worldwide," he said.

The model's S-shaped sigmoid curve reflects this situation with an inflection point in the mid-1980s when the speed at which the population is growing starts to slow down until it stabilises around 2050.

The data also reflect the downward trend in the UN's series of prospects.

"Overpopulation was a spectre in the 1960s and 70s but historically the UN's low fertility variant forecasts have been fulfilled," Munoz said.


Go to Top

Photo Gallery
A hair stylist Kailash Kashid creates a special hair cut slogan of Maratha Kranti Morcha...

A hair stylist Kailash Kashid creates a special hair cut slogan of Maratha Kranti Morcha...

Actor Salman Khan plays with his sister Arpita's kid at an event for the tie-up between...

Actor Salman Khan plays with his sister Arpita's kid at an event for the tie-up between...

Artisans work on a giant model of Hindu god Ganesh during preparations for the upcoming Durga Puja..

Artisans work on a giant model of Hindu god Ganesh during preparations for the upcoming Durga Puja..

The palace witnessed very little visitors on the day and thus children enjoy playing at the...

The palace witnessed very little visitors on the day and thus children enjoy playing at the...

Temples submerged at Gwari Ghat due to floods caused in Narmada River by heavy rains...

Temples submerged at Gwari Ghat due to floods caused in Narmada River by heavy rains...

Indian Army vehicles move towards border areas in Akhnoor sector on India Pakistan Border...

Indian Army vehicles move towards border areas in Akhnoor sector on India Pakistan Border...

BJP activists celebrate the Indian army's Surgical strikes along the Line of Control in PoK...

BJP activists celebrate the Indian army's Surgical strikes along the Line of Control in PoK...

all-party meeting in New Delhi on Thursday following Indian army's surgical strikes along the LoC...

all-party meeting in New Delhi on Thursday following Indian army's surgical strikes along the LoC...

People celebrate after Indian army's Surgical strikes along the Line of Control...

People celebrate after Indian army's Surgical strikes along the Line of Control...

Artists practice the Garba dance ahead of the Navratri festival in Ahmedabad...

Artists practice the Garba dance ahead of the Navratri festival in Ahmedabad...

Copyright 2014, The Printers (Mysore) Private Ltd., 75, M.G Road, Post Box 5331, Bengaluru - 560001
Tel: +91 (80) 25880000 Fax No. +91 (80) 25880523