Talks should continue

Both countries are enjoying growing economic ties which cannot be taken hostage to bickering over the border issue.

China’s territorial dispute seems destined to remain unresolved for quite some time. The latest manifestation of China’s brazen show of aggressive intent came demonstrably clear with the incursion of Chinese troops in Ladakh’s Depsang area, which infuriated the armed forces.

The Army that faces the brunt on the ground is angry, and understandably so, and want the government to jettison its ultra-defensive mindset towards China. If this requires “a show of force”, there should be no hesitation to opt for this option. Though one can understand the genuine anger, upping the ante by such retaliatory measures could not be the option and the doors for negotiation ought to be kept open.

This development is the first major test for India-China ties after the new leadership of Xi Jinping has assumed power. India is not the only country with which China has territorial disputes; it has disputes with a host of other countries in the region.

But unlike its ongoing standoff with Japan and Taiwan over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands show, the situation in the Indian border is more serious as Chinese troops have already set up camp 18 km inside Indian territory. This shows that Xi Jinping’s foreign policy would not be much different from that of his predecessors.

The standoff between Indian and Chinese troops on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have happened in the past. More recently, there were signs of rapprochement following Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s meeting with Xi Jinping.

On April 24, a PLA helicopter conducted reconnaissance between the old and new patrol bases in the Chumar sector as well as the track junction area between Chushul and Demchok. It is at Demchok that the Chinese have built a huge observation post to monitor the activities of the Indian Army.

The PLA also raked up the issue of Indian Army bunkers at Fukche, beyond Chushul, only to be told that the work had already been halted. This has worsened the border impasse.

Still, India has decided to send External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid to Beijing in the second week of May ahead of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s trip to India on May 20. This diplomatic initiative is an attempt to defuse potentially the worst standoff between the two countries since 1986.

Is India then a soft state? The answer cannot be in the affirmative because there is no better option than keeping the channel of dialogue open. If Li Keqiang’s first overseas trip to India after taking office is derailed, it will leave a huge impact on the future of India-China bilateral ties. After all, besides the political differences, both the countries are enjoying growing economic ties which cannot be taken a hostage to bickering over border issue.

Great powers

The truism, however, is that relations between great powers cannot be sustained by inertia, commerce or mere sentiments; there are deep strategic fissures that cannot be ignored. This does not mean to suggest that an early resolution or even de-escalation be expected.

China has refused to withdraw troops that have pitched tents inside Indian territory. Unlike a number of past incursion, this time around the Chinese troops have stayed put since April 15. The Indian Army sees the Chinese incursion as a reflection of Beijing’s aggressive intent and, therefore, calls for “a show of force”.

The question that arises is: why  the Chinese troops are refusing to leave? It was probably in response to India’s decision to strengthen infrastructure and troop deployment near the border. The Chinese were clearly not comfortable with the heightened Indian activity “far too close” to the border, be it troop movement, erection of new border outposts, re-operationalisation of airstrips such as Daulat Beg Oldie or laying of border roads.

Though the Chinese drew attention to the new Indian fortification and infrastructure close to the border, they stopped short of overtly demanding dismantling of the same as a pre-condition for retreat of their troops from Raki Nala.

This time around, the Chinese decision to erect tents and stationing the troops may have been deliberately timed when the Chinese Prime Minister is scheduled to visit India. Lately, China has been raising the border issue through statements by its leaders and even speeches at multilateral forums and the latest incursion in Depsang is part of Chinese strategy to forcefully make the same point ahead of Li’s visit.

The Chinese claim that its incursion is in response to India’s infrastructure development near the border is dubious because China itself has undertaken extensive construction activity.

In fact, India’s decision to strengthen infrastructure and connectivity near the border came much after China had built a vast network of border roads and tunnels on its side. Does it suggest that the new Chinese leadership is not averse to take tough positions on foreign policy issues, while keeping the country’s reform-oriented policy on track? There are no easy answers to the question.

There are reports which suggest that the latest Chinese incursion had approval “from the highest authorities” in China. The Indian Army has the legitimate worry that the Chinese troops may stay put inside the Indian territory for quite some time, which means that the irritants would not go away so soon. India has to invigorate diplomatic efforts to find a solution.

(The writer is currently a Visiting Faculty at the JNU)