Reversing China tilt

The Modi government has an opportunity to underscore India’s desire to treat Nepal as an equal sovereign state.

External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj’s maiden visit to Nepal last week was an important opportunity to recalibrate Indo-Nepalese ties and lay the foundation for prime minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Nepal from August 3 -- the first bilateral visit to Nepal by an Indian prime minister in 17 years. Nepalese polity, cutting across party lines, had welcomed the assumption of power by Modi, with most expressing hope that Nepal would be a beneficiary of Modi’s development agenda. "

Swaraj’s visit managed to convey the right message by settling a long-pending issue as she promised a review of the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship, within two years on the basis of recommendations from a group of eminent persons from both countries. She also co-chaired the Nepal-India Joint Commission that met after a gap of 23 years and reviewed the bilateral ties holistically.

‘A yam between two rocks’, was how the founder of Nepal, Prithvi Narayan Shah, described the Himalayan kingdom, given the pivotal geo-strategic location of Nepal, land-locked between China and India. In 1955 Nepal established diplomatic relations with China, recognising Tibet as part of China in 1956. Since the mid-19th century, Tibet, rather than Nepal, had served as India’s buffer with China. The role of this buffer passed on to Nepal after the Chinese annexation of Tibet. It became imperative for New Delhi to deny China direct access to Nepal because of the vulnerability of India’s Gangetic Plain containing critical human and economic resources. For China, the growing influence of India had grave implications for its security considerations, especially as regards Tibet.  

The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship between India and Nepal enshrined the close relationship between the two nations (including close co-operation on trade, transit, defence and foreign affairs) and constrained Chinese options vis-à-vis Nepal. As China’s economic and political profile rose, it gradually began to increase its influence in Nepal and Kathmandu, wanting to counterbalance India, was keen to leverage China in its dealings with New Delhi. By supporting Nepal’s position during most disputes between that country and India, China was able to project itself as a benevolent power in comparison with the supercilious attitude of India towards its smaller neighbours. Nepal signed an arms pact and secret intelligence-sharing agreement with China in 1988 which elicited strong reaction from New Delhi, leading to the imposition of an economic blockade on Nepal in 1989–90. Despite this, Sino-Nepal ties continued to evolve with Nepal importing Chinese weaponry and cultivating extensive military co-operation in a move to reduce dependence on India. 

Politically fractured

The Maoists who came to power in 2008 made clear their intention to renegotiate the 1950 treaty with India, but collapsed before it could accomplish that objective. Since then, in an attempt to cover its bases in a fractured political environment, China has reached out to all the political parties in Nepal, while demanding that Nepal recognize the annexation of Tibet and repress the activities of Tibetan activists within Nepal. Kathmandu, for its part, has obliged, making it clear that it will not allow any groups to use Nepalese territory for anti-Chinese activities. China has been undertaking development initiatives across Nepalese villages adjoining Tibet, as well as liaising with Nepalese border security and upgrading police stations at points used by Tibetans to cross into Nepal. 

China’s interests and presence in Nepal now go far beyond the Tibet issue. China is projecting its ‘soft power’ in Nepal by setting up China Study Centres to promote Chinese values among a Nepalese populace that is otherwise tied culturally to India. These centres are emerging as effective instruments in promoting Chinese perspectives on key issues concerning Nepal. China is constructing a 770-km railway line to connect the Tibetan capital of Lhasa with the Nepalese town of Khasa, a move that would connect Nepal to China’s national rail network. China is also constructing a 17-km road through the Himalayas linking Tibet to the Nepalese town of Syabru Besi, which will not only connect Tibet to Nepal but when completed will also facilitate the first direct Chinese land route to New Delhi. China views Nepal as a vital bridge toward South Asia. China plans to extend the railway line from Lhasa to Shigatse, Tibet’s second-largest city and as far as Kathmandu, and to build a new airport at Pokhara, Nepal. 

By projecting India as a factor of instability and an undue beneficiary of Nepal’s resources, China has used Nepalese sensitivities vis-à-vis Indian influence to good effect, thereby further undercutting Indian influence in Kathmandu. India’s overwhelming presence remains a source of resentment towards India in Nepal. China appears attractive because it can claim that unlike India it is not interested in the internal affairs of Nepal. 

With the drafting of a new constitution having stalled in Nepal, and political and economic instability causing more uncertainty, India is viewed as being part of the problem, as it is seen as being too involved in Nepal’s domestic politics. The political uncertainty in Nepal has fuelled anti-Indian sentiments and allowed China to enlarge its presence with Beijing even offering lawmakers financial assistance in drafting the new constitution. The Himalayan kingdom is going through a crisis and India is being blamed for pulling strings from behind the scenes. It is this insecurity that China has been able to exploit in Nepal to serve its own interests—a trend that is likely to persist in the near future.

The Modi government has an opportunity to underscore India’s desire to treat Nepal as an equal sovereign state by expressing its willingness to explore the possibility of a transparent review of the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship and to explore joint developmental projects in the realm of energy and infrastructure. New Delhi will have to think big if it wants to retain its privileged position in South Asia and it can make a start with Nepal