Battle for Bihar will be Janata Parivar's first test

It was not a coincidence that on April 15, the day when the Yadav trio – Lalu, Mulayam and Sharad – joined hands with the other constituents of the erstwhile Janata Dal to give a final shape to the yet-to-be born new outfit, BJP president Amit Shah overstayed in Patna to get a first-hand account of the emerging political scenario in the poll-bound Bihar.

Shah, who has been credited with routing his rivals in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, was in Patna on April 14. Here, he not only sounded poll bugle on Ambedkar’s birth anniversary but set an ambitious target of winning 185 seats out of total 243 Assembly constituencies in the state which goes to poll in October-November this year.

But with the coming together of leaders of the Janata Parivar, the BJP’s target of winning 185 seats, many analysts say, appears to be fanciful. If the saffron party is still under the illusion that Modi’s magic (which appears to be on the wane) will work wonders in this caste-ridden state, then it will be left with eggs on its face, much like the Delhi poll result earlier this year. 

Though it is too early to predict how the Nitish-Lalu combine, backed by the Congress and the Left, would fare in the Assembly polls, a factor that is beyond doubt is that the combined strength of the secular forces will give the NDA a run for its money. Apart from the electoral chemistry, it’s the poll arithmetic, which has made Lalu and Nitish sink their two-decade-old differences so that they can take their common foe - the BJP – head-on.
Statistics show that even in the peak BJP wave in May 2014, Lalu’s RJD polled 20 per cent votes while Nitish’s JD (U) got 12 per cent votes in the parliamentary elections. If one adds Congress’s eight per cent, the combine strength of the secular forces would be 40 per cent, a tad higher than the NDA’s 39 per cent votes (BJP: 30 per cent, Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP: 6 and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party: 3 per cent).

It is against this backdrop that Lalu and Nitish decided to bury the hatchet. The first glimpse of their success was evident when, during August 2014 Assembly bypolls, the two regional satraps joined hands and inflicted body blow to the BJP by winning six out of 10 Assembly constituencies. Now that the merger of Janata Parivar constituents has been formalised (even though the party’s name, flag and symbol are yet to be announced), it will not be a cakewalk for the BJP-led alliance.

“The BJP is making fun of us by saying that zero plus zero is zero. I can only say that the BJP is indulging in bravado, knowing fully well that the strength of the Janata Parivar has now become virtually indestructible. The fact is that the saffron camp has read the writing on the wall but is not willing to accept it. Their reactions provide clear evidence of the fear within,” said Nitish soon after the BJP hit out at him for choosing to work under Mulayam Singh Yadav’s leadership.

“In theory, the coming together of erstwhile Janata Dal leaders look strong. But tell me, how will Nitish convince the voters of Bihar to establish the rule of law or ensure good governance in the company of Lalu, whose 15-year-rule in the state is still symbolised as Jungle Raj? Secondly, the voters in Bihar will always remain sceptical about the longevity of this new-found alliance, as the Janata leaders, since 1970s, have withered away as many times as they have joined hands.

The Manjhi effect
Thirdly, on paper, the coming together of Lalu-Nitish looks unbeatable combination. But at ground level, will the Yadavs (Lalu’s castemen) and Kurmis (Nitish’s castemen) put their age-old rivalry on the back-burner and work in harmony?,” argued senior BJP leader and former Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi.

Many political commentators agree with Modi and point out that neither Mulayam is a factor in Bihar nor Lalu-Nitish combine have any say in UP. Similar is the case in Karnataka and Haryana. “But still, the coming together of Janata Parivar gives the secular forces a psychological edge where it could upstage its rival in a direct contest. The BJP needs to reassess the ground reality and re-do its maths before its calculation goes wrong,” argued social scientist Ajay Kumar.

President of the RLSP and Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha too asserts that it will be foolish on part of the BJP to underestimate the combined strength of Lalu-Nitish. “It will be foolhardy if we undermine their strength. The NDA (BJP, LJP and the RLSP) will have to rework its strategy as the ensuing poll is going to be stiff competition in the wake of emerging political situation,” he averred.

The BJP, however, has another ace up its sleeve. It wants to use Jitan Ram Manjhi to the hilt, and remind the voters how the state’s first Mahadalit chief minister was unceremoniously ousted and eventually expelled from the party. “Manjhi, by putting up candidates at several places, could inflict lot of damage to the secular forces as the 17 per cent Dalits and Mahadalits have traditionally voted for Lalu, Congress and Nitish. But with the humiliation Manjhi had to suffer at the hands of Nitish, he could be a spoiler in the polls which will, arguably, be a close contest,” Ajay Kumar argued. Against such backdrop, Bihar will be the first litmus test not only for the Janata Parivar, but for the Sangh Parivar too.