Although Census keeps on releasing various data ever since the completion of its operations in 2011, it does not attract such wide attention as that of the release of religious data. The religious data is often a subject of intense debate. Misinformation such as majority being swamped by minority are spread by misinterpreting the religious data in the last few decades.
The outcome of the release of the 2011 census data on religion on August 25 was in no way different. Many headlines in the newspapers and other media soon after the release of the data were a clear indication that the data is often misinterpreted, misleading the public without understanding what it really conveys on the future of Indian religious demography.
Therefore, it is important that religious demographic data are subject to careful scrutiny and looked at objectively to draw right conclusions. The decadal population growth rate of Muslims was the highest and stood at 24.6 per cent, followed by Hindus at 16.76 per cent and Christian 15.53 per cent. All other religious groups (Sikhs, Buddist and Jains) are growing only at single digit between 2001-11 period.
But it is important to remember that the growth rate of population is the result of several forces. In India, however, birth rate plays the pivotal role. But there is considerable lag between the fertility transition and the change in the growth of population as the women giving birth today are born several decades before.
Therefore, mere consideration of the growth rate of population at a point in time in the history and making several assertions on the religious demography often lead to misleading conclusions. The trends in growth rate of population among different religious groups over the last few decades, on the contrary, conveys that the pace of decline has been fastest among Muslims as compared to other religious groups.
For instance, the decadal growth rate of population among Hindus during the previous decade of 1991-2001 was 19.91 per cent and declined by over 4 percentage points to reach 15.53 per cent by 2001-11 period. The Muslim growth rate has declined faster by around 5 percentage point during the same period from 29.46 to 24.65 per cent.
This clearly shows that the pace of decline in growth rate has been faster among Muslims and the growth rate recorded in 2011 census is one of lowest ever since modern census has started in India towards the end of the 19th century. Therefore, the interpretation of religious population growth rate at a point of time can be problematic and could lead to wrong conclusions.
One of the serious concerns on religious demography over the last few decades has been the possibility of minority population overtaking the majority in the long run. Many scientific studies have ignored that apprehension but such misinformation was spread time and again both through media as well as through other publications. The 2011 census results have clearly bolted any such apprehension once again.
The change in the share of population across religious groups had been rather insignificant. It is interesting to note that the share of Hindus in total population has marginally come down by 0.7 per cent to reach 79.8 per cent while the Muslim population has increased nearly by the same magnitude to reach 14.23 per cent between the 2001 and 2011.
With the decline in the growth rate of Muslims faster in recent decades, there is no possibility of altering the religious composition of the population to any great extent in the future although minor changes are expected. Hence, any unnecessary affirmation like majority swamped my minority are unfounded and is not based on any scientific analysis of the data.
Higher growth
It is also important to understand the reasons behind higher growth of Muslim population over other religious groups. The demographic changes have critical connection with the socio-economic background of the population particularly the educational status. The poor educational level among Muslims particularly the females is well recognised and need much greater policy attention.
Moreover, it is also important to note that India is also a country with considerable state level differentials in demographic patterns. States like Uttar Prad-esh and Bihar stand at the bottom of the tables on fertility transition. There is also a concentration of Muslim population in these states. Nearly quarter the country’s Muslim population lives in Uttar Pradesh followed by 10 per cent in Bihar.
Interestingly, the growth of Muslim population in Kerala is only 12.5 per cent in the decade of 2001-11 much less than the growth of the Hindu population growth of the country. Kerala has over a quarter of its population Muslims. All these indicate that the context matters which result in higher or lower growth of population at a particular point in time.
In conclusion, there is no doubt that India’s demographic profiles are fast changing with rapid decline in fertility in recent years. The faster decline in fertility in recent times, reaching 2.3 and close to the replacement level, is an indication of the changing demographics of the country. Obviously, the data show that the demographic changes are not merely limited to certain sections but embraces all the religious groups.
Thus, religion, which played a vital role in the demographic decisions of many couples, is no longer a vital indicator on the decisions of number of children. The changes, therefore, are universal in nature which will alter the demographic landscape in coming decades irrespective of narrow boundaries of religion, caste or regions.
(The writer, Professor, Population Resea-rch Centre, is Acting Director, Institute of Social and Economic Change, Bengaluru)
Published 04 September 2015, 17:55 IST