Tough task ahead in Assembly polls

As voices of dissent within the BJP gets louder after the debacle in Bihar, BJP president Amit Shah has tried to tell his colleagues that he will get back to the drawing board to work out a strategy for Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry where polls are due in early 2016.

But after Delhi and now Bihar, the BJP is not the same party it was a year ago. The party cannot forever bask in the halo of invincibility it acquired after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
The million dollar question is how will the BJP face these polls? Each state presents a different picture and, already, there are signs that a big lesson learnt from the Grand Alliance will be sought to be replicated.

The motto –united we win and divided we lose— will be the guiding principle, if not a new one, for many parties.

However, the BJP cannot employ this principle in the states like Assam where its stakes are high and it is one of the main principal parties, the other being the Congress. At best, the party can look for electoral tie-ups with smaller groups.

In the Lok Sabha polls last year, the BJP won seven out of 14 of the state's parliamentary seats. The Congress won three, a loss of four seats from the 2009 elections. Ahead of any BJP initiative, Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, who will be completing his third term, has already hinted that the Congress is open to an “understanding” with rival parties like the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Left parties to keep the BJP away.

In the 2010 polls, Gogoi himself played the “Hindu” card by taking up the issue of illegal migration, outsmarting the BJP because of differences with perfume baron-turned-politician Badruddin Ajmal, who is yet to respond to Gogoi’s overtures.

The Congress stands to gain if it reaches some sort of an understanding with Ajmal’s AIUDF, which has a significant command over the state's minority population.

For both the Congress and the BJP, the issue of illegal migrants will be a major poll plank. The Modi government's recent decision to grant asylum to Bengali-speaking Bangladeshi Hindu migrants in Assam has led to widespread protests from pro-Assamese speaking groups.

The BJP’s strategy so far has been to open its doors to Congress leaders who are bitter rivals of Gogoi. It is relying on rebel Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma, one of the closest aides of Gogoi, who has shifted to the BJP. More recently, nine Congress MLAs and some leaders of the AGP joined the BJP.

BJP’s cold feet

In West Bengal,  the BJP had raked in 17 per cent of the votes in the Lok Sabha polls, highest-ever in the state.The BJP had even thought of  splitting the Trinamool Congress when the Sarada chit fund scam probe by the CBI was at its peak. But the party developed cold feet and softened towards Mamata Banerjee in the hope of winning her support for passing bills in the Rajya Sabha. That caused confusion and the party is yet to think of a new strategy.

Shah’s team is also accused of the same "bahari" style of micro management by outsiders that bombed in Bihar. Also, there is strong resentment among the ranks that yesteryear film stars are being encouraged at the cost of insiders who have served the party for decades.

In Kerala, just before the Bihar verdict , the BJP was riding high and hopeful of emerging as a third player after the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). The party could register a five-fold increase in its vote share at Aruvikkara Assembly by poll. It also performed well in Thiruvananthapuram civic polls.

The BJP is counting on an alliance with dalit groups and the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), an influential Ezhava caste affiliated body.  The Ezhavas, a “backward” community, accounts for about 60 per cent of the Hindus. But SNDP general secretary Vellapally Natesan’s bid to bring all Hindus under the banner of his proposed party has been rebuffed by the Nair Service Society, representing the Nair community, which is not ready to be part of any Hindu alliance.

In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the BJP’s task looks even more herculean. In 2014, the BJP used a rainbow coalition with Modi as the mascot to win two Lok Sabha seats, Kanyakumari and Dharmapuri. Since then, Vaiko-led Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) has left the NDA. Buoyed by Bihar, Vijaykanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) has remained indifferent to the BJP and is looking to unite all anti-Jayalalitha forces.

Dr K Ramadoss’ PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi), too, has distanced itself from the BJP.  Karunanidhi’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is still undecided about joining a front against Jayalalitha’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which Vijaykanth is hoping to put up. The BJP is in a dilemma as to where it stands.