Maya, Modi, Muslims challenge SP in UP

CM Akhilesh Yadav has kept his image clean, focussed on development and put his own men in places.

Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh prepares for repeat performance in assembly elections 2017 though he is facing not only anti-incumbency but also caught in a quagmire of 3 Ms:  Modi, Mayawati and Muslims. This becomes piquant as UP electoral battle is multi-cornered and Akhilesh government was elected on 29% votes, the lowest vote share since independence on which any government was ever formed in UP.

Akhilesh completed his fourth year in office on March 14. He has changed a bit. He has kept his image clean and soft, demolished multiple chief minister syndrome, focused on development and silently put his own men in places. But, he has not earned reputation over improving law and order, controlling goons in his party, politicisation of bureaucracy and Yadavisation in appointments.

Though people in general are not angry with Akhilesh, they appear uncertain whether they would vote for him again. But, he may have dangers lurking from within his own Samajwadi Party (SP) where many leaders have been repeatedly warned by party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav to mend their ways or face 2014 Lok Sabha (LS) like verdict.

Besides that, 3 Ms constitute quagmire that has potential to defeat Akhilesh’s ambition to return to power. Modi and BJP are his first challenge especially as next the assembly elections would be fought in the backdrop of massive BJP win in 2014 LS elections in which party got 71 out of 80 seats. But, that win is also a liability with Modi; replicating 42.3% votes for BJP may be an Herculean task. With awfully bad experiences in Delhi and Bihar assembly elections, BJP must be strategising to prevent that situation in UP.

In 2014, SP had lost its support base to BJP; it lost Yadavs to BJP by 20 percentage points and lower OBCs by 12 percentage points. These voters will probably be the first to return to SP and it will be interesting to see BJP’s counter strategy to retain them. Will BJP go back on caste chemistry, or amalgamate caste with development?  Will the party use Modi’s OBC status to hold on to them? But lack of a dynamic  leadership in UP will surely weaken BJP’s position vis-à-vis SP.

Mayawati may be most dreaded competitor for Akhilesh as she had been UP CM many times. Mayawati and Akhilesh both formed governments on almost equal vote share: Mayawati on 30% in 2007 and Akhilesh on 29% in 2012. Interestingly, they have different social support bases except Muslims. The OBCs generally support SP and Dalits are core support base of BSP. But Muslims are their common constituency; in 2012 assembly election, 39% Muslims voted SP and 20% BSP.

But, Mayawati lost most backward class votes by 9 percentage points due to Babu Singh Kushwaha episode and that chunk largely went to SP. Surprisingly, she also lost her core Dalit votes by 12 percentage points and other SCs votes by 6 percentage points to SP.
This trend continued in 2014 LS elections though the beneficiary changed from SP to BJP; Mayawati lost dalits votes by 16 percentage points and other SC votes by 35 percentage points and that entire chunk went to BJP.

Dalit votes

In 2017 assembly elections, the crucial factor is: how Dalits will vote? Though SP is planning to reach out to non-Jatav Dalits especially Valmikis, Pasis, Berias etc. through sammelans in Dalit-dominant areas on the ground of winning 58 out of 85 reserved seats in UP assembly, yet Dalits are more likely to choose between BSP and BJP as they have inherent dislike for SP supported by OBCs who, as land owning class, had been exploiting and coercing them as landless labourers. However, if there is division in Dalit votes, SP may benefit at the husting.

Even Congress is not lagging behind in targeting dalits. To attract them, it launched Bheem Jyoti Yatras in August 2015 covering 19 districts. In March this year, second phase of yatra will cover 14 districts. With Prashant Kishor, political strategist for Modi in LS and Nitish-Lalu in Bihar, helping Congress in Assam, Punjab and UP elections, it would be interesting to watch if he is able to carve-out some Dalit votes for Congress in UP.

Muslims are most important to Akhilesh and SP. In 2014 LS elections, a huge 58% Muslims voted for SP despite Muzzaffarnagar riots. However, the party must be worried about retaining the Muslim support. Muslims in certain pockets like Bundelkhand are reportedly favouring BSP owing to the help they got from its leader Naseemuddin in getting government jobs. With Adam Khan a little marginalised in SP, his surreptitious manoeuvrings may push Akhilesh towards pursuing policy of soft Hindutva that may distance Muslims from SP.

Even Asaduddin Owaisi of AIMIM, having planned to contest elections in UP from some Muslim dominant constituencies, may stake claim for Muslim votes. With new strategies of Prashant Kishor, Congress may attract some more Muslims. The coming days would be watched for how the incumbent SP and its CM respond to multiple electoral challenges ahead.

(The writer is Chair, Department of Political Science, Christ Church College, Kanpur)