Alliance puts Left-Congress prospects on revival path

A year ago, when CPM central committee member Gautam Deb floated the idea of a Left-Congress alliance to fight the Trinamool, many comrades shrugged off his proposal as crazy, if not downright silly. But Deb was simply ventilating a well-calculated strategy of a group of CPM leaders, which included none other than Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and Sitaram Yechury.

Left Front Chairman Biman Bose, the then party secretary Prakash Karat, Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar and several top leaders of the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) and the Forward Bloc were totally against having any alliance or even seat adjustment with the Congress. The CPM leaders in Kerala cried hoarse. They were sensing a victory in their state and felt that a tie-up with the Congress in West Bengal would sour their prospects.

Deb’s idea faced rough weather even within the Congress. Though a majority of West Bengal’s leaders were pressing for an understanding with the Left, primarily to prevent the Trinamool from vanquishing whatever remained of the Congress in West Bengal, the high command was not particularly pleased. How could they forget that the CPM had attempted to topple the UPA government 8 years ago? Still Buddhadeb, Yechury and their comrades doggedly persisted. The alliance could come in handy even nationally during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, they argued. So, the idea gradually blossomed and the alliance finally came to life barely 2 months before polling began in West Bengal.

The Left-Congress alliance, which many thought would be aborted before its birth, is now putting up an unexpectedly tough fight against the Trinamool. How tough? In private discussions, top Trinamool leaders admit that the alliance is a real threat. Mamata Banerjee has stopped pooh-poohing the alliance. Last week, she stunned even her opponents by publicly pleading voters with statements like: “If you don’t like our candidate, criticise him…you can even slap him if you are so angry… but please vote for him. Don’t bring this unholy Marxist-Congress alliance to power.”

Such words surely show her nervousness. The Saradha chit fund scam with its trail of over 100 suicides, the Narada sting, the recent flyover collapse in Kolkata, attacks on women, corruption and nepotism of her party leaders in the districts and intra-party violent rivalry has cast dark shadows over her government. The Left-Congress alliance is simply giving the growing dissent a voice and a platform.

Uncertainty prevails
As had happened in the 2011 Assembly polls, 2014 Lok Sabha elections and in the panchayat and municipal polls held during the last five years, the Left may have tasted a drubbing even time had it not formed an alliance with the Congress. But its ability to return to power will depend on several crucial factors.

The Congress has some presence in north Bengal. But in the southern part of the state it is virtually non-existent. Here the Left will have to fight all alone. Also, it is still unclear whether the traditional Congress supporters will overcome their age-old allergy to the Left. The alliance is not working well particularly in the district of Murshidabad, a Congress stronghold where the Left, too, has considerable strength. In at least 8 seats, there could be “friendly” fights between the two. The RSP and the Forward Bloc are still hostile to the idea of voting for the Congress.

Most important, however, is the BJP factor. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP polled about 17% of votes, up from its normal 6%. The Modi wave of 2014 has waned now, but the alliance will have to bring back to its fold at least 50% of BJP votes in order to cross the 148 mark in the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly.

Finally, a lot will depend on the Election Commission’s ability to ensure a free election. Violence erupted in many of the 48 constituencies which went to poll in the first phase. The Opposition agents were evicted from booths by Trinamool musclemen. Known CPM, Congress and BJP supporters were prevented at gunpoint from venturing out of their homes to cast votes. As many as 24,000 complaints were lodged with the commission, a record of sorts. The full bench of the commission has visited Kolkata thrice so far, another record. It has already issued a show-cause notice to Mamata Banerjee for violating the model code of conduct. But she remains defiant.  
Can the Left-Congress alliance overcome so many hurdles? 

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Kolkata)